Florida State Seminoles

[hedge]

JP Morgan raises the chance of a worldwide recession from 40% to 60% today: "There will be blood."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/recess ... a-0be79774

This was 0% on January 19. Thanks, Trump.

[hedge]

Not that Tree is worried about a global recession, he'll still be standing in the bread line either way, sucking on the government tit and stuffing his face with free bread whilst railing against "globalism"...

[innocentbystander]

here it is

[Tree]

No bread lines here. Gonna drink a 6er of craft beer while I look at some draft projections then go down to Wegmans to find a plump young thing to talk to and hopefully take to the bar. Life’s good brah.

[innocentbystander]

I'm not happy with what's going on with the (stock) market today, but the distribution of equities by households: the top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities. 88% of the stock market. The next 40% of (Americans) owns 12% of the stock market. The bottom 50 has debt. They have credit card bills, they rent their homes, they have auto loans, and we've got to give them some relief.

Right there. That's it.

[innocentbystander]

No bread lines here. Gonna drink a 6er of craft beer while I look at some draft projections then go down to Wegmans to find a plump young thing to talk to and hopefully take to the bar. Life’s good brah.

Not for everyone.

In 2024, more Americans took European vacations than at any other time in history. And in 2024, more Americans were at Food Banks (bread lines) than at any other time in history. And when they ask the people at the food bank, what they say is that $100 that these people have for groceries, it doesn't get it done. They need 5 or 6 or 7 other items in the basket each week. That is not a good America.

Just click on the youtube I posted. Its all there. But you may have to focus and pay attention, you can't put 1 hour in a TikTok.

[Jungle Rat]

True. I noticed we have a few of them in here that are big on mass posting twitters and whatnot along with the bumper sticker slogans that go with. You know what they say about how you can manipulate the uneducated and illiterate into thinking whatever you want.

How else do you think Trump won?

[Tree]

Trump won bc of how bad the Dem party has become. They litterally get more superpac and billionaire donations than the Repubs.

[hedge]

www.forbes.com

“… How much would an iPhone cost if Apple were forced to make it in America?

In the $30,000 to $100,000 range… and no this is not a typo.

In fact, if Apple were forced to solely manufacture the iPhone in America, there is a good argument that it would not be able to manufacture any at all. And if they could somehow successfully make the manufacturing transition, capacity would likely be constrained to a just a few million units a year.

The issue here is not really about differences in the cost of labor. It is more about the supply chain and it is mostly about differences in the necessary skills required to manufacture hundreds of millions of iPhones at high-quality to satisfy current market demand.

As Apple CEO Tim Cook points out in a recent interview [1], the U.S. is sorely lacking in certain critical skills required in the manufacturing supply chain. One of these skills is precision tooling and specifically, tooling engineers.

… Tooling engineering is a highly skilled position that requires years of training and experience. It is an “analog” type skill that combines artisanal craftsmanship with precision engineering skills. And as Mr. Cook alludes to later in the talk, the Chinese have developed and scaled these skills over the last three decades while the U.S. and other countries have gone the other direction and de-emphasized them …

[innocentbystander]

Great.

Let Apple keep making them all in China, have wealthy people pay the 25% VAT that is a tariff, the wealthy can sell their older iPhone to a dealer that sells used phones, and middle class and poor people can buy the used phones and pay no tariff.

There is no problem here hedge. This is the system working as Trump would like.

[hedge]

Yeah, it's working alright, and I also, unbelievably and certainly unintentionally, think you are right in saying it's working exactly as Trump wanted. Thursday and Friday wiped out $6.4 trillion in the market value of US companies. S&P futures are currently down another 300 points, that's more than they were down on Thursday or Friday, if this holds (and I think it's not just going to hold, it's going to get worse), the markets are currently down $10 trillion in 3 days. Winning!!

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Trump’s trade war on reality​
Trump’s tariff crusade ignores U.S. economic strength — and risks squandering it on fantasy and folly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... nostalgia/

“… It is U.S. economic heft that allows him to try to force the rest of the world to bend to his will. But Trump is using American power in such a capricious, destructive and dumb way that it will almost certainly result in a lose-lose outcome for everyone.

The real economic story of the past three decades is that the United States has surged ahead of all its major competitors.

In 2008, the U.S. economywas about the same size as the euro zone’s; now, it is nearly twice the size. In 1990, average U.S. wages were about 20 percent greater than the overall average in the advanced industrial world; they are now about 40 percent higher.

In 1995, a Japanese person was 50 percent richer than an American in terms of GDP per capita; today, an American is about 150 percent richer than a Japanese person. In fact, the poorest American state, Mississippi, has a higher per capita GDPthan Britain, France or Japan.

… Trump’s nostalgic worldview is rooted even further back than the 1960s. He looks fondly on the late 19th century, when, as he described this week, the United States had only tariffs and no income tax, and America was stronger economically than it has ever been compared with the rest of the world.

This history is nonsense. In 1900, the United States accounted for about 16 percent of the global economy by one measure; it is now about 26 percent of it. Americans’ standards of living and health are much higher today.

But in acting out on his nostalgic fantasy, Trump might well end up dragging America back to what it was then: a poorer country, dominated by oligarchs and corruption, content to swagger around its backyard and bully its neighbors but marginal to the great currents of global economics and politics.”

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Nikkei plunge nears 9% as Japanese bank stocks plummet​
Japan’s Nikkei share average tumbled nearly 9% early on Monday, while an index of Japanese bank stocks plunged as much as 17%, as concerns over a tariff-induced global recession continue to rip through markets.

The Nikkei dropped as much as 8.8% to hit 30,792.74 for the first time since October 2023. The index was trading down 7.3% at 31,318.79, as of 0034 GMT, Reuters reports.

All 225 component stocks of the index were trading in the red.

The broader Topix sank 8% to 2,284.69.

A topix index of banking shares slumped as much as 17.3%, and was last down 13.2%.

The bank index has borne the brunt of the sell-off in Japanese equities, plunging as much as 30% over the past three sessions.

[hedge]

I'm sure everything will be fine here when US markets open in a few hours...

EU markets open down badly.

European stock markets plummet as Trump refuses to back down.​
Across Europe, stock markets are in freefall.

In Frankfurt, Germany’s DAX index has fallen by 10% at the start of trading, while France’s CAC has lost 6.6%, and the Italian FTSE MIB is down 5.7%.