The Goat Pen

slingin sammy wrote:Nice bump for Obama in todays Gallup Poll ,it went from 51-45 Romney yesterday , to 52-45 Romney today

Haven't you learned by now, sammy, that Gallup and Rasmussen and are not valid polls.

Revise and resubmit.

bluetick wrote:

sardis wrote:Last week's favorable jobless claims is being corrected...Color me shocked.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49460659

Many economists believe a reading below 400,000 points to an improving labor market. The 4-week moving average of new claims, which smoothes out volatility and is considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose just 750 last week to 365,500.

"Improvement in the labor market will continue to be fitful and slow'" said Joseph Trevisani, a market strategist at Worldwide Markets in Woodcliff Lakes, N.J.

Good find, Sardis. Keep it up.

Gloat all you want with those numbers...That's all you got.

It all comes down to OH.

Romney is going to win FL, NC, CO, and VA. This puts you at 257.

Add OH to that and he has won.

Without OH you need 3 out of 4 of NH, IA, NM, NV.

Problem is I can't see Romney losing OH but winning Iowa and NH UNLESS its just super close in OH.

This reminds me of you idiots.

[youtube]EohGmG-QUhA[/youtube]

Drudge headlines.


WELFARE SOARS 32% IN 4 YEARS...
Now costs $1,030,000,000,000...
NO SURPRISE: Jobless claims rise 46,000...
Under president, for every $7 brought in by gov't, $11 spent...
Iran Renews Internet Attacks on U.S. Banks...
Violent crime jumps 18%, first rise in nearly 20 years...
GALLUP: 3.4 percent of US adults are LGBT...(About 75% at the Pen.)
http://blog.heritage.org/2012/10/18/pre ... -failures/
Schoolkids suspended for seeing teacher's topless snap...

Why Barack Obama’s Debate Performance is Irrelevant

October 18, 2012 By Timothy Dalrymple Leave a Comment

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/philosophi ... rrelevant/

It was unsurprising that President Obama performed better on Long Island than he did in Denver.  If there is one thing his friends and foes agree upon when it comes to the character of Barack Obama, it’s that he’s intensely competitive.  According to reports, Obama did not know how poorly he had performed in Denver.  Once he had digested the overwhelming criticism of his performance, however, the President put in the time, prepared, and delivered a much better performance.
It’s unsurprising.  It’s also irrelevant.  But the reason why it’s irrelevant is relevant and important to understand.
The Left misinterpreted Obama’s post-Denver slide in the polls.  They thought it was because Obama did not perform well, but that’s not it at all.  America knows Barack Obama by now.  Well, to be more accurate, by virtue of a truly epic failure on the part of the our mainstream media, Americans are still astonishingly ignorant about President Obama’s history and record prior to 2008 — but their perceptions are already formed about who Obama is, what he says and what he does, and those perceptions are not going to change a great deal from a single debate performance.  The movement in the polls after Denver had nothing to do with changing perceptions of Obama — with one important exception I’ll explain shortly — and everything to do with changing perceptions of Romney.

REVIEW & OUTLOOKOctober 17, 2012, 7:02 p.m. ET

Energy in the Executive

The President's real record on fossil fuels.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087 ... oveLEFTTop


The problem for the President is that a government outfit called the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) compiles these statistics. That's where Mr. Romney got his accurate figures on oil and gas production on government land and permitting in Mr. Obama's first term. The EIA also reports that total fossil fuel production in public areas—oil, gas and coal—has plunged to a nine-year low, to 18.6 quadrillion BTUs from 21.2 quadrillion in 2003.

puterbac wrote:It all comes down to OH.

Romney is going to win FL, NC, CO, and VA. This puts you at 257.

Add OH to that and he has won.

Without OH you need 3 out of 4 of NH, IA, NM, NV.

Problem is I can't see Romney losing OH but winning Iowa and NH UNLESS its just super close in OH.

You're prematurely calling the race in CO, VA, and FL. More recent polls show Romney's small lead in FL and CO slipping.

I agree with you though that If Ohio doesn't flip for Romney, it's hard to see Nevada, Iowa, and NH all doing so.

BTW, Armageddon scenario:

Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada

Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin

Electoral college ends in a tie. House of Representatives crowns Romney. Oh boy

RE: the Gallup national LV poll.

It's interesting how far of an outlier that poll has become. No other national poll has either guy with that big of a lead

Rasmussen: Romney +2
IBD/TIPP: Tie
ABC Wash Post: Obama +3
Politico: Obama +1

Many won't want to hear it, but Rasmussen was more accurate than Gallup in 2008 and less prone to wild swings.

Electoral college ends in a tie. House of Representatives crowns Romney. Oh boy

Long term we're fucked either way but I would LMAO if that scenario came to pass.

10ac wrote:

Electoral college ends in a tie. House of Representatives crowns Romney. Oh boy

Long term we're fucked either way but I would LMAO if that scenario came to pass.

Heh. There's also a possibility of a reverse of 2000. Romney wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college.

Butterfly ballot Buckeyes?

Dr. Strangelove wrote:

puterbac wrote:It all comes down to OH.

Romney is going to win FL, NC, CO, and VA. This puts you at 257.

Add OH to that and he has won.

Without OH you need 3 out of 4 of NH, IA, NM, NV.

Problem is I can't see Romney losing OH but winning Iowa and NH UNLESS its just super close in OH.

You're prematurely calling the race in CO, VA, and FL. More recent polls show Romney's small lead in FL and CO slipping.

I agree with you though that If Ohio doesn't flip for Romney, it's hard to see Nevada, Iowa, and NH all doing so.

BTW, Armageddon scenario:

Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada

Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin

Electoral college ends in a tie. House of Representatives crowns Romney. Oh boy

Well remember I posted what Suffolk university said last week? They wouldn't be polling nc, fl, or va anymore cause Romney was gonna win all three. Oprama was in nh of all places yesterday.

The article I posted yesterday about how oprama's debate perf doesn't matter backed up what I said last week. Romney swathe surge not because oprama sucked but because that was the first time most people had seen him and they saw that he is intelligent and doesn't have horns on his head. That basically he became a viable alternative in one debate.

Unless there is some kind of major gaffe or some secret d's are holding back I think you will see a slow creep towards Romney pretty much everywhere and then if history is a guide, especially with current economic situation, independents and undecideds break hard towards Romney.

Don't know why Gallup is so large all of a sudden and yes I know about Rasmussen being most accurate.

bluetick wrote:From RCP today:

Rasmussen Ohio: Obama 49% Romney 48%
USA Survey Ohio: Obama 45% Romney 42%

o-h-i-o

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-poll ... IFXo669NMo

who knows .......but I would say that Romney keeps gaining the mo , but he could peak to early

California or North Dakota....Obozo or Romney.....it really is an easy choice.


[youtube]tJ-zfUUjBiQ[/youtube]

I think maine and nebraska both have scenarios where a candidate can get a single electoral vote while losing the state

Pravda On The Cumberland (The Tennessean) Endorses a Republican for the first time in 30 years and probably the 2nd time ever.

Dr. Strangelove wrote:

10ac wrote:

Electoral college ends in a tie. House of Representatives crowns Romney. Oh boy

Long term we're fucked either way but I would LMAO if that scenario came to pass.

Heh. There's also a possibility of a reverse of 2000. Romney wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college.

Can the reverse also be true? If Obama wins the popular vote but loses the election, I'm not going near any major US city.

Are you saying the party of tolerance will riot if they don't get their way?

10ac wrote:Pravda On The Cumberland (The Tennessean) Endorses a Republican for the first time in 30 years and probably the 2nd time ever.

And the republican Knoxville News-Sentinel refuses to endorse anybody for prez - 1st time in the 120 history of the paper. It must have something to do with magic underpants... a real headshaker.