The Goat Pen

Alabama and Auburn have had 6 common opponents. Alabama is 5-1 against those opponents, and Auburn is 1-5. And Bama had a better point variance in all 6 games. Each had three home and three away games.

Alabama beat LSU by 14 at home.
Auburn lost to LSU by 24 on the road.
38 point Bama advantage.

Alabama beat Georgia by 28 on the road.
Auburn lost to Georgia by 7 at home.
35 point Bama advantage.

Alabama beat MissState by 25 on the road.
Auburn lost to Miss State by 8 at home.
33 point Bama advantage.

Alabama beat Arkansas by 13 at home.
Auburn lost to Arkansas by 8 on the road.
21 point Bama advantage.

Alabama lost to Ole Miss by 6 at home.
Auburn lost to Ole Miss by 8 at home.
2 point Bama advantage.

Alabama beat TAMU by 18 on the road.
Auburn beat TAMU by 16 on the road.
2 point Bama advantage.

38 + 35 + 33 + 21 + 2 + 2 = 131/6 = 21 points (-minus 3 for Auburn's homefield advantage) = an 18 point Bama win. If it were only that easy.

If Bama and Auburn both turn in their TAMU or Ole Miss performances, and assuming a 3-point AU home field advantage, Auburn wins by 1.

So, it could be argued that Auburn's winning chances are actually 2 of 6 or 33.3% (repeating!). That's why, with a heavy heart, I have to predict Auburn 31, Bama 30. Another crushing upset on the Plains.

It must have taken AA hours to type that with breaks for the laughing fits.

No, it's solid analysis. Airtight.

Stats compendium (Auburn advantages in red font), national rank in parenthesis:


Offense

Alabama averages scoring 35 points a game (31st nationally). Auburn averages 28.5 (69th).

Alabama averages 417.41 yards total offense (54th). Auburn averages 377 (87th).

Alabama's offense averages 218.5 yards passing (70th). Auburn averages 176.1 (109th).

Alabama's offense averages 198.91 yards rushing (32nd). Auburn averages 200.91 (31st).
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Defense

Alabama allows 14.5 points a game on defense (3rd). Auburn allows 27.2 (69th).

Alabama allows 265 yards total defense (3rd). Auburn allows 417.9 (84th).

Alabama allows 187.2 yards passing (21st). Auburn allows 237 (82nd).

Alabama allows 77.82 yards rushing (2nd). Auburn allows 180.91 (83rd).
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Kicking

Alabama averages 14.28 yards per punt return (13th). Auburn averages 8.0 (67th).

Alabama averages allowing 7.56 yards per punt return (57th). Auburn allows 16.8 (126th).

Alabama averages 18.61 yards per kickoff return (108th). Auburn averages 28.03 (5th).

Alabama averages allowing 18.21 per kickoff return (19th). Auburn allows 21.2 (64th).

Alabama averages 41.8 yards per punt (48th). Auburn averages 41.1 (67th).

Alabama makes 63.6% of FGs (103rd). Auburn makes 87% (14th).
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Penalties

Alabama averages 58.6 yards per game in penalties (84th). Auburn averages 45.1 (23rd).
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Turnover margin

Alabama averages +.55 turnovers per game (24th). Auburn averages +.45 (36th).
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Time of Possession

Alabama averages 32:52 per game (17th). Auburn averages 28.10 (98th).
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Strength of Schedule (Congrove)

Alabama 2nd. Auburn 22nd.

In sum: Alabama is a middling team in offense and kicking. Auburn is a middling team in offense and kicking, too. Alabama has a very good D, though. Auburn does not, which SHOULD be enough to overcome Auburn's homefield advantage.

Serious prediction: Alabama 30, Auburn 22.

G,BIIT.

Bama 38
Auburn 10

That's assuming Auburn gets a pick 6, scoop 6, or a kick return for a TD.

Speaking of kick returns, did you still contend that those are inconsequential in football, AA?

Please don't be stupid, prof. I'm tired of beating you up and even more tired of explaining what I said to you.

AlabamAlum wrote:Please don't be stupid, prof. I'm tired of beating you up and even more tired of explaining what I said to you.

I am fully aware what you said about kick returns not being an important part of football. I also note you stopped saying that after the Kick Six, which nuked your whole argument rather definitively.

AA is getting old and grumpy.

He's still recovering from having had to drink Jim Beam and off-brand tequila.

Professor Tiger wrote:

AlabamAlum wrote:Please don't be stupid, prof. I'm tired of beating you up and even more tired of explaining what I said to you.

I am fully aware what you said about kick returns not being an important part of football. I also note you stopped saying that after the Kick Six, which nuked your whole argument rather definitively.

That's not what I said, you fucking moron.

But if you wish, I will say this: field goals returned for a TD are not a relaiable metric of a team's chance of winning.

But Alabama is second in the nation in long punt returns. Auburn is 72nd.

Alabama is 76th in long kickoff returns. Auburn is 2nd.

Does AA have dementia?

Demtia? Yeah. I have demtia.


Idiot.

Spell check Nazi.

AlabamAlum wrote:But if you wish, I will say this: field goals returned for a TD are not a relaiable metric of a team's chance of winning.

But Alabama is second in the nation in long punt returns. Auburn is 72nd.

Alabama is 76th in long kickoff returns. Auburn is 2nd.

Be careful in that glass house of yours, AA.

"Alabama is 76th in long kickoff returns. Auburn is 2nd."

In fairness, they've had a lot more practice at kickoff returns than Bama has...

KeviNole wrote:

AlabamAlum wrote:But if you wish, I will say this: field goals returned for a TD are not a relaiable metric of a team's chance of winning.

But Alabama is second in the nation in long punt returns. Auburn is 72nd.

Alabama is 76th in long kickoff returns. Auburn is 2nd.

Be careful in that glass house of yours, AA.

Stats are not a "glass house", Kev. If you are talking about the typo, well, I do not make fun of people who make them unless they are attacking my acuity with them first. In fact, I do my best to never note them, unless they are of the "I'm a genus your a moran" type. I certainly make my share of them.

hedge wrote:"Alabama is 76th in long kickoff returns. Auburn is 2nd."

In fairness, they've had a lot more practice at kickoff returns than Bama has...

I believe they average 2.1 more kickoff returns per game.

Anyway, Auburn has a slugger's chance in this game. I certainly wouldn't put money on it.