The Goat Pen

we just missed our quarterly target by $4m. Its the first miss for us in 4 years

sardis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:03 am That's the thing. The only thing that can stop the Russians in Ukraine is the Russian people themselves. Eventually, Russia will wear the Ukrainians down, and then what?

Truth be told, the Pentagon and State Department probably aren't too worried about the long term viability of the Ukrainian's infrastructure. A slow bleed, guerrilla war a la Afghanistan with the Russians basically occupying the land they already hold that takes up Russian resources would be just peachy for us in terms. It would be far cheaper to supply a bunch of guerrillas instead of a full fledged army, and we could still zap Russian morale and resources (albeit at a slower rate on the latter).

I hope the Pentagon and government as a whole has learned an important lesson from this: we need more chip manufacturing and heavy manufacturing in the US if we want to fight the Chi-Coms. Conflict with China is coming whether we want it or not. It's inevitable, and as it stands right now, we only have a few weeks worth of the high tech munitions needed to fight such a war (which will be fought almost exclusively by our blue water navy and air assets) to say nothing of the ability to supply, arm, refurbish and replace the assets (ships and planes) we will need to fight such a war. This doesn't even take into consideration our cyber vulnerabilities.

We can talk about advanced technology all we want, but numbers matter. Granted, Chicom anti-ship missile tech has yet to prove whether it can nail a carrier traveling at 35 knots 1000+ nm away, but they're going to be doing spray and pray anyways. Anti-missile tech only works to an extent when war heads are coming in like rain. The Chicoms will nail our land based facilities in Japan and Guam, and carrier based planes will have even more importance (along with far less combat time due to the longer flight time from carriers parked out in safer waters than the Chicoms' land based aircraft only flying 100-150 nm to the combat zone).

The Japanese and Australians will be all in on going to war with China along with us most likely, but lots of experts worry that South Korea would sit it out and deny the US the ability to use those bases.

eCat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:20 pm we just missed our quarterly target by $4m. Its the first miss for us in 4 years

Well, we know where the shortfall came from. Hope your people enjoy those cheese plates at the conference...

"The Japanese and Australians will be all in on going to war with China along with us most likely, but lots of experts worry that South Korea would sit it out and deny the US the ability to use those bases."

I suspect if the US and China get into an all-out war, North Korea will be invading South Korea on Day 1. Of course, we can just nuke North Korea. But all this begs the question: In whose interest is it for the US and China to go to war with each other? Russia's? Iran's?

hedge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:53 pm

eCat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:20 pm we just missed our quarterly target by $4m. Its the first miss for us in 4 years

Well, we know where the shortfall came from. Hope your people enjoy those cheese plates at the conference...

and turkey sammiches

its all fun and games when you're kicking republicans off committees



your buddy is anti Semitic (well to be fair, you are too Tlaib), learn to play by the rules the rest of us have to follow

you can talk bad about white people, you just can't talk bad about *those* white people.

Madam Speaker, I choose not to follow this crazy bitch

I don't think we will ever fight China. China will collapse in multiple states at some point in the future. Possibly we could go to war over Taiwan, but I don't think they have any more of a hope and prayer of getting troops onto Taiwan than the Nazis did of getting troops across the English Channel. The only way China annexes Taiwan in our lifetimes is for Taiwan to fall from within. Going to war over Taiwan is just not feasible. They cannot win on air or sea against the United States and Japanese and other forces likely to be arrayed against them regardless of how many missiles they fire. It will hasten a Chinese Civil war, as all out war means that dissidents in western China, Tibet, and especially in western culture outposts like Hong Kong became places where western psychological and likely all out fomentation of rebellion and supplying weapons etc will take place. China is more likely to fight on their own soil than Taiwans.

i agree with aTm

The neolibs might be happy sharing global power with China for a while. But the way capitalism works, it won't last forever. Eventually we'll come to blows, and that's assuming they don't outmaneuver us first, which is a safe bet considering our politicians are all just paid shills for the billionaires and corporations.

I don't think so tree

China "works for us." WORK being the operative word. Their entire economy is predicated on manufacturing all the cheap, small shit, that the earth consumes. This is by design.

And what is the design? Name one nation on the earth (other than China) where the most marginal of workers can show up to punch the clock, every day, straight and sober, un-unionized, and without complaint, and work CHEAPER than the Chinese? There isn't a nation on the earth that can fulfill all those promises. So, for China to go to war, is to make her hundreds of millions of workers, unemployed. That will not happen.

Biden has a line in the sand. I wonder when things go to shit if he crosses it

" look, the idea – the idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews, just understand – and don’t kid yourself, no matter what you all say – that’s called ‘World War III.’ OK? Let’s get it straight here, guys. That old expression – ‘Don’t kid a kidder.’”"

innocentbystander wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:58 pm i agree with aTm

The kiss of death

hedge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:58 pm "The Japanese and Australians will be all in on going to war with China along with us most likely, but lots of experts worry that South Korea would sit it out and deny the US the ability to use those bases."

I suspect if the US and China get into an all-out war, North Korea will be invading South Korea on Day 1. Of course, we can just nuke North Korea. But all this begs the question: In whose interest is it for the US and China to go to war with each other? Russia's? Iran's?

1) The theory is that the Chi-Coms will control the North Koreans in exchange for the South Korean acquiescence. The South knows we wouldn't be able to send them reinforcements and supplies as easily to say the least, and the North's land army would steam roll South Korea's army for a while.

2) China is hell bent on annexing Taiwan, which is a key part of our Pacific defense strategy. The second China makes a move, we're all in on it. Plus, we are heavily dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors. The Chinese don't have the capabilities that Taiwan has. South Korea does, but not China. Ask Russia just how important Taiwan's semiconductor industry is.

3) Everyone through WW1 was impossible because all of Europe was so entangled economically and politically -- and to a degree that would not be matched again until decades after WW2 -- and look what happened.

The Pentagon's position is that war with China will happen within the next twenty years. The Chi-Coms have a major problem: their old one child policy resulted in a male heavy population -- and disproportionately so -- and the nation's population and economy will take a massive hit in the coming 15-20 years because of it. Plus, India and Vietnam are fast replacing China for cheap manufacturing, further hurting China's economic position. China may very well see aggression as its only option a la Japan (albeit for slightly different reasons) in 1941, and like Japan, they would likely wager that Americans won't stomach a war and would seek peace, even on terms favorable to China.

There will be no rebellion in China. They have their people on electronic lockdown. If they can’t rebel with the current shit they’re going through, they’ll never rebel. China will go after Taiwan with no resistance from within. Hell, even Russia has been able to quelch any internal protest with what they are doing in Ukraine.

We are vulnerable with Taiwan and its semi-conductor grasp on the world. We are heading to more production here, and being self-sufficient, but we’re still a ways to go. Once we do, Taiwan is not worth defending. We can’t defend every nation anymore. We don’t have the resources.

With the freaks he has around him, he’s probably correct with this statement.

"We are vulnerable with Taiwan and its semi-conductor grasp on the world. We are heading to more production here"

Thank god Trump did something right and got the ball rolling on more domestic semi-conductor production. Oh wait, that was Biden...

Inflation

It's Biden's fault...

a recession with record employment

leave it to Biden