The Goat Pen

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:18 am

sardis wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:40 am

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:36 am It was the mountain portion near Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina that also has lots of Florida folks living there half of the year. That's why it happened.

The Florida folk can't vote there because it's not their primary residence.

True, but I just wanted to point out how horrible those places are becoming due to such infestation.

The folks around here are all about Mountain Air, Blowing Rock, Highlands, et al. Heck one of the wife’s uncles sold out of Fayetteville completely and sold his place at Governor’s Club outside of CH to summer at Mountain Air and winter at Landfall in Wilmington. He gets Floridians during the summer and Yankees during the winter. He’s paying millions to live amongst assholes year round.

How is that different from where he was living before?

sardis wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:28 am

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:18 am

sardis wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:40 am

The Florida folk can't vote there because it's not their primary residence.

True, but I just wanted to point out how horrible those places are becoming due to such infestation.

The folks around here are all about Mountain Air, Blowing Rock, Highlands, et al. Heck one of the wife’s uncles sold out of Fayetteville completely and sold his place at Governor’s Club outside of CH to summer at Mountain Air and winter at Landfall in Wilmington. He gets Floridians during the summer and Yankees during the winter. He’s paying millions to live amongst assholes year round.

NC needs to do what SC does. Allow counties to assess a higher property tax rate (3x) if the property is not your primary residence. It probably wouldn’t get rid of them, but it would help the locals pay for better schools and safety. I’m one of those people that have a place near Higlands, but I’m still ok with higher property taxes.

Yes, I understand the bane of old Floridians coming up here, trying to navigate the mountain roads.

I agree regarding taxes, but despite past judicial reluctance, there will come a day when such taxes are declared unconstitutional (they are, imho).

Are you a member of Highlands?

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:10 pm We have a lot of 3-6 month summer rentals in my neighborhood. I wouldn't encourage anyone to buy though. The housing bubble is gonna burst next. And no one, no one can stop it.

Yep.

A new construction, ugly as fuck, four window (literally), 1700-1800 sq ft shoebox on the edge of the hood a few blocks from my house outside the neighborhood sold for $309k. That’s just crazy for Fayetteville and in such a location.

Dave23 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:18 pm

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:18 am

sardis wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:40 am

The Florida folk can't vote there because it's not their primary residence.

True, but I just wanted to point out how horrible those places are becoming due to such infestation.

The folks around here are all about Mountain Air, Blowing Rock, Highlands, et al. Heck one of the wife’s uncles sold out of Fayetteville completely and sold his place at Governor’s Club outside of CH to summer at Mountain Air and winter at Landfall in Wilmington. He gets Floridians during the summer and Yankees during the winter. He’s paying millions to live amongst assholes year round.

How is that different from where he was living before?

Fewer murders and less municipal corruption?

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:01 pm

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:10 pm We have a lot of 3-6 month summer rentals in my neighborhood. I wouldn't encourage anyone to buy though. The housing bubble is gonna burst next. And no one, no one can stop it.

Yep.

A new construction, ugly as fuck, four window (literally), 1700-1800 sq ft shoebox on the edge of the hood a few blocks from my house outside the neighborhood sold for $309k. That’s just crazy for Fayetteville and in such a location.

All bubbles burst. I agree that there is a real estate bubble. And I agree it will burst. I just don't know when it will burst.

I can't speak for Cincinnati, Kentucky, or North Carolina, but here in Arizona, I don't see many "For Sale" signs. I don't. So assuming there IS a bubble, when it pops here, nothing will happen. There is no inventory of real estate to "drive down" in price.

More to the point, I can't speak for Cincinnati, Kentucky, or North Carolina, but many (not all, not even most, but MANY) of the very few numbers of real estate transactions we have, they are cash offers. No financing. Just cash. And people who are offering cash, are offering more than the asking price. And if you pay cash for your new home (and the bubble bursts) you will not be selling for a loss NOR will you be turning your keys into the bank. You own the house. You have no mortgage. You don't give a fuck about real estate bubbles and when they burst.

So yes, I agree there is a bubble. But there is virtually no inventory of homes for sale, the banks do NOT have anywhere near the exposure that they had in 2008, NOR are the people buying these properties leveraged with massive amounts of debt. So the bubble will burst but it will likely be a very quiet pop.

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:01 pm

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:10 pm We have a lot of 3-6 month summer rentals in my neighborhood. I wouldn't encourage anyone to buy though. The housing bubble is gonna burst next. And no one, no one can stop it.

Yep.

A new construction, ugly as fuck, four window (literally), 1700-1800 sq ft shoebox on the edge of the hood a few blocks from my house outside the neighborhood sold for $309k. That’s just crazy for Fayetteville and in such a location.

I lived in my condo for 2 years and made 65k when I sold it in March. 2 years to the day I bought it. I researched it's sales history and it was crazy. I made more than twice in profit than anyone else since it was built it 96. It's crazy now. I'm out of the game till it crashes. Gonna rent 2 years and go from there.

The only time you see a For Sale sign in Arizona is when Grandpa dies.

Ok. I was gonna ignore your ridiculous real estate response but I just can't. Tell me you're cool buying a house for 800k and a year later it's worth 500k. You're good with losing a liquid 300k? If you wanna talk real estate or construction we can talk all day. These cash buys are being widely done by groups of investors. Banks take a hit. Trust me.

You are an idiot.

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:36 pm The only time you see a For Sale sign in Arizona is when Grandpa dies.

Yeah, there is some truth to that. Same is probably true for Florida.

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pm Ok. I was gonna ignore your ridiculous real estate response but I just can't. Tell me you're cool buying a house for 800k and a year later it's worth 500k. You're good with losing a liquid 300k?

No. All I'm saying is that if the entire transaction was handled with cash, it may suck for you but the economy is not ruined. And you are not ruined because you do not HAVE to sell.

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pmIf you wanna talk real estate or construction we can talk all day. These cash buys are being widely done by groups of investors. Banks take a hit. Trust me.

You are an idiot.

I don't trust you. Every single person who buys a house is an investor. Only an idiot would not understand that.

If it is a group of people who all threw their money into a pool to buy a house, and the house goes down in value, that hits the investors not a bank. It was their money, not the bank's money. And it only hits the investors if they sell. If they keep it (and rent it out) then until they sell, wtf difference does it make?

A bank only takes a hit if they are forced to foreclose and sell at a loss in an auction. And the loss must be MORE than 20% of the loan amount because the bank has mortgage insurance to cover the first 20% of "loss" on the sale. So for a bank to lose money, it is very, VERY rare for that to happen. Otherwise, the bank never-EVER takes a hit. And even if a bank is sitting on some foreclosed property, the line of people out the door who want to BUY that foreclosed property (on a price set by the bank) is long. That is why movie scenes like this (three years prior to the 2008 crash) likely happened in the world of reality.



I agree, there is a bubble. On that, I feel you are correct. But if the banks face next to no exposure, (shrugs) well, what difference does it make? If you are a cash investor, you are not mailing the keys to any bank. There is no bank. You are sitting on your property (that is now with less) and trying to make a go of it.

It's like reading Charlie Browns mothers writing. No one goes off course like IB. Was waiting for divorce to somehow be tied into it. But instead another movie clip to sum real life up.

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:38 pm It's like reading Charlie Browns mothers writing. No one goes off course like IB. Was waiting for divorce to somehow be tied into it. But instead another movie clip to sum real life up.

Look rat, just because YOU are not responsible enough to save enough money to buy a home and pay cash for it, that doesn't mean that other people aren't doing that. Maybe YOU are just the marginal case? A bank is not party to every single real estate transaction. That is increasingly the case, today. Investors pooling their money to pay cash for a house, rest assured rat, there is NO BANK tied to the deed in those transactions. Maybe the investors borrowed the money from a bank to get the cash to invest, but that loan that the investor took out is not a mortgage.

If you clicked on the movie clip would understand that the so called "experts" never foresaw the banks taking a beating on their Mortgage Backed Securities. And they did. Dr Burry was right. But just because that happened in 2008, it doesn't mean that is about to happen in 2022. There have been many, MANY housing bubbles. In this case, there will not be much exposure to the banks.

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:57 pm

sardis wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:28 am

DooKSucks wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:18 am

True, but I just wanted to point out how horrible those places are becoming due to such infestation.

The folks around here are all about Mountain Air, Blowing Rock, Highlands, et al. Heck one of the wife’s uncles sold out of Fayetteville completely and sold his place at Governor’s Club outside of CH to summer at Mountain Air and winter at Landfall in Wilmington. He gets Floridians during the summer and Yankees during the winter. He’s paying millions to live amongst assholes year round.

NC needs to do what SC does. Allow counties to assess a higher property tax rate (3x) if the property is not your primary residence. It probably wouldn’t get rid of them, but it would help the locals pay for better schools and safety. I’m one of those people that have a place near Higlands, but I’m still ok with higher property taxes.

Yes, I understand the bane of old Floridians coming up here, trying to navigate the mountain roads.

I agree regarding taxes, but despite past judicial reluctance, there will come a day when such taxes are declared unconstitutional (they are, imho).

Are you a member of Highlands?

No, there are about 10 country clubs in that area and they all have $75K + initiation fees....No thanks. I'm not that diehard of a golfer. Only one public course available, but I keep my club membership down in Greenville so that's where I golf. Mostly hiking and boating up in the mtns and constantly working on the house. I'm not RICH rich like most of the folk up there.

Yes, there is a housing bubble, but it won't be like 2007, 2008 where foreclosures were left and right. Very few risky mortgages and not a huge swell in homebuilding like back then. Still it will be an opportunity to buy, and I'm hoping I have enough couch money left after this stock market debacle to capitalize.

sardis wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:22 pm Yes, there is a housing bubble, but it won't be like 2007, 2008 where foreclosures were left and right. Very few risky mortgages and not a huge swell in homebuilding like back then. Still it will be an opportunity to buy, and I'm hoping I have enough couch money left after this stock market debacle to capitalize.

Exactly. Sardis is correct. Labor shortage + lumber shortage = very small amount of homebuilding.

Yes there is a bubble, but it will be a very different situation than 14 years ago. I'm not quite sure what to make of the next bubble bursting but we will all find out soon enough.

IB you ignorant slut. I payed cash for my condo you nitwit. Pay attention. I sold it but I'm not buying now. To unstable. Understand? Not that fucking hard.

Jungle Rat wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:26 pm IB you ignorant slut. I payed cash for my condo you nitwit. Pay attention. I sold it but I'm not buying now. To unstable. Understand? Not that fucking hard.

Good for you. Now if the person you sold it to paid cash for it (and a bubble bursts) and its worth half what they paid for it, are they in trouble? Will they struggle to make their payments? No. No they will not. They paid cash. The condo will not go into foreclosure. And if you didn't sell it (and it is worth half what you paid) would you be in financial ruin? No. You paid cash. No foreclosure. Maybe less alcohol for you, but that is it.

6 million foreclosures in 2006, 2007, and 2008, caused the 2008 financial crisis. Understand? Not that fucking hard. Pay attention you ignorant slut.

They did not pay cash. Not many young couples can.

But your what if, coulda shoulda maybe but theories do keep me entertained.