The Goat Pen

The "Western" viewpoint on Ukraine basically comes down to belief in democracy (or "self-determination" might be more accurate) over something like Bismarck-ian nationalist geo-politics.

The west view Ukraine as a sovereign country ruled by Ukrainians that should have self-determination about who they ally with and trade with and are aligned with politically.

Russians view Ukraine as a political entity initially created as a subunit to rule over a Russian core territory that was only "set free" after the fall of communism. They believe that Ukraine should be like Belarus, a part of the east slavic homeland that is at very least a protectorate state of Russia.

Russians likely view Ukrainians aligning with their "enemies" as a betrayal of the historical links, while the west views it as Ukraine doing what's best for Ukraine.

I can think of some examples where the US would be put in a similar position as a thought exercise. The first I can think of is like the government of the Philippines being suddenly overthrown and replaced with a pro-China, anti-Taiwan, anti-US government. That would cause a shitstorm, in terms of our strategic interests in the Pacific, and in terms of suddenly an ally for hundreds of years turning away from us. The only thing that scenario doesnt really have is an American sentiment that the Philippines is part of America in the same way that Ukraine can be considered a historical part of Russia.

Another similar example where we did flip our shit like Russia is now when something like this happened is with Cuba. If Cuba had been a US territory like Puerto Rico before the revolution with a significant Anglo-American population, IMO the US absolutely would have invaded Cuba with the full force of the armed forces to put down the revolution rather than the kind of half-assed Bay of Pigs which we did try.

Another possible similar scenario is if like Hawaii had stayed an American territory and then a protectorate of the US reverting back to more native-Hawaiian autonomy rather than statehood, and then now 80 years after its key strategic importance in WW2, suddenly Hawaii like the Phillippines example reverts to a pro-Chinese stance including a possible military alliance that would allow the Chinese to base missiles and ships in the central Pacific instead of ours. The outrage among the American people would likely also be extreme. Hawaii is our vacation paradise! And we have relatives there!

These scenarios are similar to the viewpoint of the Russians towards Ukraine since the collapse of pro-Russian government there in the wake of the Euromaidan protests in 2014, which led to Russia seizing back the Crimea immediately, a critical strategic territory for their defense. That said, them viewing Ukraine this way doesn't make them right. Just because the Russian Empire once conquered the territory that comprises Ukraine hundreds of years ago (mostly), or that the first "Russians" ruled from Kyiv or whatever, doesn't mean that the people of Ukraine have no right to rule themselves free of the oversight of Moscow in perpetuity.

aTm that was awesome, nice parallels to Hawaii and the Philippines

Here is the intelligence of one of the 435 votes on Capitol Hill on what our federal government may decide to do in Ukraine



God help us.

This is just another reason Republicans will never win anything major for awhile.

https://battleplan.news/watch?id=621537 ... 1b4a66fe92

Is it really a convoy if it's only one truck?

He did take a nice lap around Scranton.

AOC is right that if we can ween ourselves off of fossil fuels, it will put us in a much better position when it comes to Russia. Oil and gas is just about all they've got. Take that away and they've got nothing. Would greatly improve our position with regards to the middle east also...

hedge wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:27 pm AOC is right that if we can ween ourselves off of fossil fuels, it will put us in a much better position when it comes to Russia. Oil and gas is just about all they've got. Take that away and they've got nothing. Would greatly improve our position with regards to the middle east also...

I don't think the USA imports one drop of fossil fuel from Russia. But Biden shutting down the pipeline in the Dakotas doesn't help.

We gradually worked our way to be a net exporter of oil until this came out today.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51338

Don’t know what to make of this.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAUdAzK

Bragg's motivations have to come into play

is he seeking justice over a witch hunt? not likely in New York

I know the United States was killing it in oil production, to the extent we pushed down the prices to the point it wasn't really feasible to continue investing in remote shale, which kind of pushed for some equilibrium in the market - then the pandemic hit and nobody was buying oil.

"I don't think the USA imports one drop of fossil fuel from Russia."

Much of Europe does though. If they didn't need oil, they wouldn't need Russia, and that improves our position with regard to Russia. Of course the owners of US oil reserves would be fucked, but fuck em...

eCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:25 pm I know the United States was killing it in oil production, to the extent we pushed down the prices to the point it wasn't really feasible to continue investing in remote shale, which kind of pushed for some equilibrium in the market - then the pandemic hit and nobody was buying oil.

Amazing that oil futures were trading negative a year or so ago and now they're up close to $100 a barrel...

The whole Russia-Ukraine war is a European/Russian proxy war far more than it is a Cold War style US/Russia one. NATO figures into the Russian rhetoric because NATO has the armies, but really its all about a potential future conflict between western Europe and Russia.

NATO is at its core a defensive alliance/peacekeeping/deterrence force aligned around the United States and the United Kingdom. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO because it takes them out of their sphere and invites any conflict with their neighbor to become essentially Russia vs the World if the US/UK are drawn in, but far more importantly, IMO, is that Russia does not want a Ukraine aligned with continental Europe (the European Union). Ukraine wanting to be aligned with Europe is what kicked this all off in 2014, not Ukraine wanting to be aligned with NATO.

The European Union is potentially in the future a territorial/sovereign entity that could claim hegemony over the entire continent. One of the ways such an entity unites and forges itself together is through a decisive victory in war against a common enemy. This is the exact way many separate Austrian and Prussian aligned states were forged into "Germany" in the aftermath of Prussian victory in Paris in the Franco-Prussian War.

More than that, its actually something that has been attempted twice before in history and there is no way Russians aren't aware of it. Twice a "European Union" has aggressively invaded Russia seeking to decisively achieve the ultimate goal of a unified continent. Once by Napoleon and once by the Nazis.

It is neighboring country's ties with the EU that Russia does and should fear over NATO. The US and the UK are not interested in fighting Russia, only defending against them. On the other hand, one way for a "United States of Europe" to eventually happen is for it to be declared in the midst of Victory from Red Square.

The large amount of EU and NATO cross membership also backs them into a corner. They cannot aggressively start any fight with the EU without setting off a war with the entirety of NATO including the USA and the UK who would be called in any defensive war against a NATO member state. Russia however, has no such protection from aggression (as they see it). Should one day in the future, the European continent begin to unite and has an aggressive military there is no such mechanism where the United States and UK would be called to their defense in the same way the US and UK would defend western Europe.

A world united against Russia with the exception of China , Venezuela and Cuba would be able to starve them out I would think

Russia, unlike China, is essentially currently able to change all of the future existence of mankind into something totally different in an instant at the push of a button. I'm sure Putin would never do something like that, take the whole world out with him....yes, surely nobody would ever do that....would they?