The Goat Pen

aTm wrote:I am actually unsure what Trump getting nominated would mean. He would likely get a lot of the moron blue collar vote that is a democrat bloc just like he is getting the moron republican vote. He might win vs Hillary, as crazy as that shit sounds.

I think Trump's life is in danger the closer he gets to the nomination.

Citizens United (the Super PAC dynamic, specifically) has kept the GOP field unnaturally large. 16 years ago, the Carsons and Kasichs of the world would have already dropped out. They all have PAC money behind them (shit, Cruz has one guy that has largely funded two separate Super PACs for him...ONE GUY). Trump's ceiling is widely believed to be around 45 - 50% of the GOP voter. He is winning state after state because the rest of the field is diluting the electorate.

The thing is, after Super Tuesday, Trump will have a substantial enough lead that the next wave of drop outs won't change the course. Trump could possibly not have enough delegates to sure up the nomination, but he will definitely have the lead going into Convention. God help the GOP if Trump is ahead in delegates going into the Convention and they don't give him the nomination.

So, at the end of the day, a handful of big donors, giving money to candidates via Super PACs and other "dark money" means allows for a guy like Trump to make it to Cleveland with a chance at winning the whole thing with less than a majority of the party supporting him. All hail Scalia and the other 4 justices.

"God help the GOP if Trump is ahead in delegates going into the Convention and they don't give him the nomination."

shit will break bad for sure

btw, I stole your post and put it up on that other forum I occasionally visit. GOP party heads will be exploding after reading it.

No probs. Keep me posted. NY Republicans are not good barometers for this type of shit, so I'm interested in the views. NY Republicans are basically fiscal conservatives with a deep liberal/libertarian social streak. This national politic isn't familiar.

The Republican National Committee, or RNC, may use the tactics it used to stifle Ron Paul in 2012 to handle a possible floor fight over Donald Trump.

The first order of business at the Republican Convention this coming June will be to ratify new rules. What this means is that the rules the RNC agreed on after the Convention in 2012 will expire as soon as the gavel drops to open the new meeting.

Now, usually this is mainly procedural -- the party affirming the parts of the Convention rules that are still applicable, maybe changing around some things for the benefit of also-rans or the standard bearer.

However, in recent years there's been a push to use the rule changes to undercut the party's more extreme, populist and anti-government wings.

In 2012 there was a very real chance that Ron Paul's supporters would upend the entire Convention by forcing a fight over their candidate. Rick Ungar has a good breakdown of what happened, but here's a quick play-by-play of the situation.

Paul's supporters were going to use pluralities in five states to force Paul's name onto the ballot through Rule 40 (B). The rule specified that that be the threshold for placing a candidate's name on the ballot.

In other words, 40 (B) said that any candidate with the largest share of delegates in five states could be placed on the ballot for nomination. If Paul, for example, had 30 percent but no one had higher, he would have a plurality.

As a way to stop the insurgency against Romney and ensure his victory, the RNC changed the rule to a majority of delegates in eight states. Now a candidate needed to win at least 50.1 % of delegates from eight states to be on the ballot. And that's still the way it is, and the way it will be until the 2016 Convention.

Under these current rules, there's no way of determining a clear delegate winner until Super Tuesday, at least. By switching from plurality to majority, it makes New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina relatively meaningless. All three states will see a roster of candidates over ten deep. Getting a majority of those delegates is near impossible by primary voting.

The problem for the RNC only gets worse when you consider the threat of Donald Trump's poll numbers. If there's one candidate right now who seems poised for majority delegate dominance, it's Trump. This leaves the RNC with two options, and neither are good.

First, the RNC can leave the nominating rules in place. This would either put Trump forward as their sole nominee, or, in another twist, would put no-one forward if no-one reached the berth.

Second, the RNC could change the rules in an attempt to get another nominee. This would make a Trump independent run at least more probable.

Either way, the Republicans don't get the White House in 2016 if these are the RNC's options.

EFZ

So if Trump does get the this, who would be a logical choice for VP? A real politician? Someone of his ilk?

And then does he resign in 2 years due to health concerns, can't do what needs to be done, scandal, etc......

I'm assuming that's why Chris Christie has jumped on the bandwagon...

Yeah. If Trump does end up winning he'll be looking for a bail out package after two years. He's a businessman, not a politician. He's in way over his head.

I wish you were in way over your head. Like at the bottom of the Mariana Trench...

Dave23 wrote:I'm assuming that's why Chris Christie has jumped on the bandwagon...

from an advisory standpoint, Christie might be Donald's kinda guy, but Christie jumped on the bandwagon just as a personal vendetta against Rubio.

I suspect Donald is going to need a swing state VP choice

That could lead to Rat's prophetic warning of Kasich weaseling himself into the Presidency...

"btw, I stole your post and put it up on that other forum I occasionally visit. GOP party heads will be exploding after reading it."

I'm as conservative as they come and even I can' stand hanging out on conservative blogs. Let me guess, most of them are all Ted Cruz clones warning the country that Trump is to the left of Hillary...

sardis wrote:"btw, I stole your post and put it up on that other forum I occasionally visit. GOP party heads will be exploding after reading it."

I'm as conservative as they come and even I can' stand hanging out on conservative blogs. Let me guess, most of them are all Ted Cruz clones warning the country that Trump is to the left of Hillary...

you are 100% correct

and they hate me with a passion because I point out how Cruz is just another politician

US senator repub says need 3rd party if trump gets nomination--wouldn't support him

crashcourse wrote:US senator repub says need 3rd party if trump gets nomination--wouldn't support him

There ain't going to be a third party. It's possible if you could consolidate the Cruz and Rubio followers under one of them, but it wont happen. Cruz followers hate Rubio more than Trump and Rubio followers hate Cruz more than Trump.

sardis wrote:

crashcourse wrote:US senator repub says need 3rd party if trump gets nomination--wouldn't support him

There ain't going to be a third party. It's possible if you could consolidate the Cruz and Rubio followers under one of them, but it wont happen. Cruz followers hate Rubio more than Trump and Rubio followers hate Cruz more than Trump.

I'm not seeing that

the Cruzettes I see (what we call them) would back Rubio under the "vote for anyone with an "R" beside their name to beat Hillary" mantra

except they don't apply that to Trump because he's a manchurian candidate

Manchuria? We'll need to see the birth certificate...

eCat wrote: and they hate me with a passion because I point out how Cruz is just another politician

I still would hate fuck his wide-jawed wife. Don't know what it is, but I'd smash.

Bklyn wrote:

eCat wrote: and they hate me with a passion because I point out how Cruz is just another politician

I still would hate fuck his wide-jawed wife. Don't know what it is, but I'd smash.

Princeton/Harvard educated Cruz with the Goldman Sachs executive wife, dual Canadian Citizenship, supported TPP, bailed on an Audit the Fed act he co-sponsored and pushed for Amnesty and claimed it was a "poison pill"

and yet his supporters believe he's the only Conservative walking on the planet.