Ostensibly Hoops

[Dave23]

wow, amazing win

UT shoots 45 3's? WTF

I bet that PSF was thru the roof…

[aTm]

Auburn may never lose again.

[innocentbystander]

Auburn may never lose again.

Auburn is my pick for the NC.

Meanwhile, out here in the West Coast, San Jose State had a 21 point lead last night.... and they lost.

[aTm]

A&M had 21 offensive rebounds last night and Oklahoma only got 19 total rebounds.

[innocentbystander]

A&M had 21 offensive rebounds last night and Oklahoma only got 19 total rebounds.

Not sure who said it, but somewhere I read that "offensive rebounds" are the single most important attribute in college basketball for a team to WIN in March. Not scoring the most. Not getting the least fouls. Nothing about defensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds ONLY. Not sure I agree with that. I tend to think that if you crack March Madness, the single most important statistic for WINNING is the team's overall free throw percentage. I say that because if you make it to March and crack the 68, everyone you face is at the very least, a very good team. And to beat a very good team you kind of have to hit almost ALL your free throws because at the END OF THE GAME that determines who wins. YMMV.

Offensive rebounds are clearly, vitally important. That I do agree with. And why? Who cares what your field goal percentage is if you get a huge number of offensive rebounds? eCat said Tennessee took 45 three-point shots and sank only 11. That is less than 25%. And they only LOST by 5. And why? Tennessee had 18 offensive rebounds. The Vols finish the regular season: 23-8.

[aTm]

The basic fundamental building block of a basketball game is a possession. One team wants to score points, the other team wants to get the ball back for their own possession without allowing them to score any points. Therefore the basic stat of basketball is actually something that isn't even in the box score or tracked at all. Points per possession (or points allowed per possession). In general, most people end up converting this to Points per 100 possessions so its a nice large useful number.

What almost everybody traditionally looked at to evaluate how teams are doing in a particular game is the shooting percentages, field goal percentage, three point percentage, even free throw percentage. People do look at rebounding margin and turnover totals to kind of adjust in their mind why the shooting percentages might not have added up to the final score. The reason shooting percentages themselves arent that good, is because shots aren't really the basic factor like people think. You not only can have a possession where you take different types of shots (free throws, three pointers, jump shots, dunks, layups, whatever), but also you can have a possession where you dont take a shot at all, or possessions where you take multiple shots.

A&M is a terrible shooting team. We shot 38% last night, and 17% I think on three pointers. Our best offensive player missed every three he took. However, when we had the ball and took a shot, this is what happened. 38% of the time, we made it and got at least two points. Out of 38 misses, we rebounded the ball again 21 times (55% offensive rebound rate). So even though we suck at shooting, we are absolutely awesome at getting the ball back and shooting it again, often times under the goal with a higher percentage shot than the first one we took. So now 38% of the time we make the first shot, 55% of the time we get it back anyway, and just considering the first order of events in the cascade, now we shoot a second shot that we have a 38% chance to make. Our expected points from that possession is 1.01 points assuming all shots were 2 pointers. 1 point is the equivalent of 50% field goal percentage when you're not trying to get rebounds. So even though we absolutely suck ass at shooting, the points we are scoring per possession are the equivalent of a team that is shooting better than 50% but isnt getting the rebounds.

The other thing besides rebounding that is underrated is getting to the foul line. A&M is average to bad at shooting free throws, however, free throw percentage is almost meaningless compared to the raw number of free throw attempts you get. Even if you are a terrible 50% free throw shooter, because generally you get two shots, you will average one point per trip to the line for two shots, which is again the equivalent of taking a two pointer and making it at a 50% percentage, which is good. And if its a player who is actually 70-80% free throw shooter? That player will average like 1.5 expected points in that possession, which is the equivalent of having a player better than Steph Curry that shoots a 50% percentage on three pointers take a shot on a possession.

Getting fouled is an amazing result in a possession, as getting to take multiple free throws are among the highest average expected points you can gain in a single possession, plus you start the process of getting bonus free throws later for non-shooting fouls and opposing players start having to be taken out of the game. Getting offensive rebounds are also amazing, because they allow you to put up multiple shots and and have multiple opportunities to get fouled and go to the line. On the other side, turnovers are absolutely the worst thing than can happen (or best if you are on defense), because when you had the ball just before the turnover, you squandered an opportunity to put up a shot that could go in or to get fouled. A turnover is a guaranteed possession where you score zero points.

[innocentbystander]

Excellent analysis

I am still of the opinion that certain statistics are more important than others depending upon the overall talent of the opponent you are facing. In that sense, whatever UConn and Purdue and Baylor and San Diego State did over the last couple of years in the tournament, that worked (regardless of how well it worked in the regular season.)

Whereas the University of Virginia (having the highest win percentage of all teams in the regular season) and then, getting knocked out in the first round by a 16 seed, did NOT work. The same thing could be said of a 34-0 Wichita State who did not even survive their first weekend in March play a little more than ten years ago.

[eCat]

[innocentbystander]

eCat, duh! Who in the ACC has beaten anyone actually IN the top 25? Duke? Anyone else? Not bloody likely.

More to the point, since Duke is undefeated in ACC play AND they are one of the only ACC teams in the top 25 (couple others pop in and out, what Louisville? Ha!) then of course, the ACC will not have hardly any wins over top 25.

[innocentbystander]

Utah State keeps pace with Auburn for wins.