The Goat Pen

today Ohio has started limiting the number of people that can go into the essential stores.

We drove around at lunch - there was a line at Wal Mart - I'm fine with that because I won't go into a Walmart unless I have to, and the local Meijer and Kroger did not have lines. I love Costco but I haven't been to one in 3 months because of the people going crazy there.

The last thing I want is to fucking stand in a line to get into a store to shop

Home Depot had them this morning

Heh.....another loonie left wing liberal Democrat. Have never met Rat but the image of him in my mind says this 'thing' could be him.

if the flyover states say relatively flat for the next two weeks - and of course that depends on the number of available tests, I wouldn't be surprised to see more articles like this

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/03/we ... york-city/

the IHME model predicted that is used, along with other data has been pretty accurate in the number of deaths, however its been very off in the predictions of hospital patients. For example, it predicted New York , as of today would need 56,000 beds. New York is at 13,400 beds. Oklahoma would need 1000, they have 38

3 states have exceeded the model, all small states with small numbers.

Our entire national shutdown is based on corona patients overrunning our hospital system.

Now I'm not saying that this won't explode, and at the moment its bad, but its not as bad as the models have predicted.

So the issue is do we continue this long term shut down because its working far better than we imagined? or do we lessen the degree of it because the modeling was wrong

10m people are unemployed. That number is going to double?triple? higher? in the next few weeks. 1 in 4 small business are closed in this country. Many of them won't come back.

Even Fauci is at the point to where he says you treat New York City different than Nebraska

eCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:55 am we are probably 48 hours away from a national lockdown - supermarkets and pharmacies stay open only

I'm isolating at home. If my son didn't have a job at a hotel, none of us would leave the house.

So. You're now bored shitless and you're ready to put America back to work?

U.S.
The US Army Warned 2 Months Ago that the Coronavirus Could Kill as Many as 150,000 Americans
rpickrell@businessinsider.com (Ryan Pickrell) Business Insider April 2, 2020, 2:34 PM EDT

The US Army assessed in early February that the coronavirus could kill as many as 150,000 Americans, the Daily Beast reported Thursday, citing an unclassified briefing document.
The document put together on Feb. 3 by US Army North had a "black swan" assessment that 80 million Americans could be infected, 15 to 25 million could require care, 300,000 to 500,000 could require hospitalization, and 80,000 to 150,000 could die.

my impressions were based on national models saying things were going to go to shit everywhere

there is a real possibility those models were wildly wrong, especially in flyover states

I'd bet money we aren't going to stay in what is essentially a national lockdown until mid August. The nation will put a price on life at some point.

Think of the impact China mishandling this has had on this country - and what this country will look like under these current conditions in 2 months, in 4 months.

Putting our country into an economic depression , that is at best, irresponsible on their part, and at worst, advantegeous for them could be considered an attack on this country. All facets of our society - our military, our medical, our supply chain, our manufacturing, education, housing/construction, our individual liquidity and long term sustainability are all weakened by this.

The point is, we've gone to war for less than this - and the rationale is the same in both cases - to preserve a way of life. So this idea of "if we just save one life its worth it" is an idealist poem, and as the numbers of unemployment, business shuttering and economic despair become more clear, there will be a discussion about the tipping point.

I do wonder how we deal with massive numbers of flu cases every year, including hospitalizations and deaths, and yet I've never heard a whisper about the healthcare system being overwhelmed by flu, even in a bad year. Clearly NYC is being overwhelmed but everywhere else not so much (at least right now). Maybe flu patients, even terminal ones, don't require ventilators (I don't know), so I guess it's possible that the lack of one piece of equipment could create a real bottleneck and "overwhelm" the system. OTOH, I also can see that we're getting a very high number of deaths in a very short time. This thing didn't really start here until early March and we've already had over 7000 deaths and that's certainly going to go way up, probably more than even a bad full season of flu. Can you imagine if this had hit in the normal timeline of flu season? If this had started sweeping the the northern hemisphere in September (which it likely or at least possibly will do again this coming September)? Hopefully we'll have some treatment or be getting close to a vaccine by then...

I do wonder if this thing is going to end up being something that only really "sweeps" the nation in high density urban areas and only affects the flyover areas in a way that is much more easy to deal with (maybe easy isn't the right word, but you know what I"m saying - it won't "overwhelm" those systems, even though rural healthcare systems are scaled in proportion to their client populations). I think this is going to end up being the crux of whether the whole CV phenomenon will be considered a truly massive disaster or not. We're all going to die somehow, some way, sometime. I'm kinda thinking that even if the total number of deaths upticks slightly or even somewhat significantly, but not in an apocalyptic nightmare scenario, the flyover states will just absorb it and move on. I do wonder about midsize cities (Cinci, Charlotte, Columbus, Raleigh, just to name a couple in the Goat Pen's viewing area), to say nothing of Houston/Austin/Dallas (nod to aTm) that are obviously more dense than, say, Paducah or Brogden/Mar Mac/Busco Beach (hello, DS). I do think if this thing comes raging back this Fall, like the Spanish flu did in 1919, it's going to get ugly, biologically and psychologically. Hopefully a full century of medical technology and massively upgraded global communication will mitigate even the worst case natural/viral scenario....

So, California shared some advice with other states, it went like this :

*A RECAP OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS* Author Unknown

AMERICA: Oh my god! Coronavirus! What should we do?
CALIFORNIA: Shut down your state.
AMERICA: Wait... what? Why?
CALIFORNIA: Because 40 million people live here and we did it early, and it’s working.
OHIO: Whoa... whoa... let’s not be hasty now. The president said that this whole coronavirus thing is a democratic hoax.
CALIFORNIA: He also said that windmills cause cancer. Shut down your state.
TEXAS: But the president said that we only have 15 cases and soon it'll be zero.
CALIFORNIA: The president can’t count to fifteen. Nor even spell it. Shut down your state.
NEW JERSEY: Us too?
CALIFORNIA: Yes, you guys too. Just like when Christie shut down the bridge, but it’s your whole state.
FLORIDA: But what about all these kids here on spring break?? They spend a lot of money here!
CALIFORNIA: Those kids invented the tide pod challenge. Shut down your state.
LOUISIANA: But wait let’s have Mardi Gras first. It entertains people.
CALIFORNIA: It also kills them. Shut it down.
GEORGIA: Ok well how about we keep the state open for all of our mega churches? Maybe we can all pray really hard until the coronavirus just goes away!
CALIFORNIA: Which is working like a charm for mass shootings. Jesus told us to tell you to shut down your state.
OKLAHOMA: What about the tigers?
CALIFORNIA: What about a dentist. Shut it down.
WYOMING: Hold up, maybe we should go county by county like the president said.
CALIFORNIA: Stop acting like there are counties in Wyoming. There are no counties in Wyoming. Wyoming is a county. Shut it down.
PENNSYLVANIA: But big coal.
CALIFORNIA: But big death. Shut it.
WEST VIRGINIA: But we were the last state to get coronavirus!
CALIFORNIA: And don’t make us explain to you why that was. Shut it down.
NORTH CAROLINA: But the republican national convention is coming here!
CALIFORNIA: SHUT... ok fine do what you want.

right now Cincinatti is fairing pretty well. Columbus and Cleveland numbers are 3X as much.

Columbus of course has Ohio St, probably top 3 largest college in the nation.

But it could also be that Cinci lags terribly behind the others in testing.

There are a handful of counties with no reported cases. Mine has gone from 11 to 14 in a period of 4 days, with 9 of those 14 already recovered.

then again, there is only 1 major hospital that serves our county and is a small podunk place because every serious medical issue goes to one of the 7 or so major hospitals serving Cincinnati. I'd be surprised if they had any ventilators.

As a PSA, I read a recovery story from a person who ended up in ICU - was otherwise healthy aside from getting the virus. Usual stuff - loss of smell, fatigue, aches , dry cough. After 5 days he ended up going to the hospital and they almost immediately put in him ICU.

He said the difference between him not being intubated was he was dedicated to doing breathing exercises whenever he was awake - constantly stretching his lungs to the point of pain. He was determined to not let a machine breathe for him and lose control of the situationHe strongly believes that, and his willingness to continually interact in a positive manner with the medical staff attending him, is the reason he walked out of ICU and never went on a ventilator.

The attending physician told him that he was the only person they have admitted to the ICU (with Covid 19) that was able to walk out on their own power.

hedge wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:38 am
I do wonder if this thing is going to end up being something that only really "sweeps" the nation in high density urban areas and only affects the flyover areas in a way that is much more easy to deal with (maybe easy isn't the right word, but you know what I"m saying - it won't "overwhelm" those systems, even though rural healthcare systems are scaled in proportion to their client populations). I think this is going to end up being the crux of whether the whole CV phenomenon will be considered a truly massive disaster or not. We're all going to die somehow, some way, sometime. I'm kinda thinking that even if the total number of deaths upticks slightly or even somewhat significantly, but not in an apocalyptic nightmare scenario, the flyover states will just absorb it and move on. I do wonder about midsize cities (Cinci, Charlotte, Columbus, Raleigh, just to name a couple in the Goat Pen's viewing area), to say nothing of Houston/Austin/Dallas (nod to aTm) that are obviously more dense than, say, Paducah or Brogden/Mar Mac/Busco Beach (hello, DS). I do think if this thing comes raging back this Fall, like the Spanish flu did in 1919, it's going to get ugly, biologically and psychologically. Hopefully a full century of medical technology and massively upgraded global communication will mitigate even the worst case natural/viral scenario....

its too early to tell, but I think the next logical step in this crisis is there isn't a one size fits all approach to this. If Oklahoma has 200 beds filled in the state with corona virus at what we believe to be the peak (they have around 40 now) then how can you justify keeping business and schools closed because New York , due to their density and way of life is in crisis mode?

Obviously you want to closely control commerce and transportation between your "safe" area and high risk locations.

But how can you tell a waitress in Oklahoma she has to go 6 more weeks without a paycheck because people in New York have been riding a subway train elbow to ellbow for the last month because they refuse to obey a stay at home order? Or people in Florida went to beaches? How can you ask the taxpayers to fund business in a location that is clean because we're all waiting on high density areas to become clean?

Certainly there is a risk of this flairing back up or even exploding in places that relax their restrictions but for the areas that didn't flare up when there wasn't restrictions, whats the odds of it happening again? (as long as you keep New Yorkers and Floridians out of neighborhood).

also another FYI, the Michigan governor has reversed their stands on the anti-malaria drug as the backlash grew.

Nevada Governor has not, however after the order he gave, prisons staff under his direction, ignored the order and stocked up to distribute to prisoners when a breakout occurred in prison

So prisoners get a medical treatment that shows promise to reduce the severity of the virus, but residents of his state are denied it.

I have to believe that will be brought up during his next election.

Also wonder about this idea that they are releasing criminals who have no right to be out on the street due to the threat of the virus, but are arresting people that defy orders.

So if you break the law prior to corona - get out of jail free, if you break the law in defiance of corona, well, guess what, you get corona in jail.

Exactly......

Hmmmmmmmmm........ Interesting

1) Because you're a dumbass and,

2) Because it already did back in January when it happened.

Fucking dementia

Chuck Woolery? Really?? Crotch finally found somebody older than him on twitter. A kilo of viagra wouldn't be enough to those two to get a hard-on...

People who follow guys like that (like Crotch and Prof) shouldn't be allowed to vote. Or own property. Of have kids. That's the main thing that's wrong with this country...