The Goat Pen

Monday, Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL), a member of the House Intelligence Committee who recently returned from Cyprus as part of the committee's Russia investigation, said this:

Let me put it this way, in the totality of circumstances, I believe - if you compared to a criminal case, there's probable cause to believe there was cooperation between the Russians and the Trump campaign. Beyond that I can't get into those specifics. But if the American public saw what I have seen and they listened to what I have heard, they would want a full-throttle investigation into what took place.

This might be what Quigley was referring to:

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday ... 100882356/

If so, no wonder Flynn lied to Pence. No wonder Trump fired him. Good riddance.

Professor Tiger wrote:This might be what Quigley was referring to:

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday ... 100882356/

If so, no wonder Flynn lied to Pence. No wonder Trump fired him. Good riddance.

More likely since Quigley just got back from Cyprus, I'd say he was referring to money that passed through Paul Manafort's hands into the Cyprus laundromat, as well as similar deals made there by Trump's new Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross.

Damn, 3 pages of unread political posts is worse than a page of Boy Scout posts on the porno thread.

"3 pages of unread"

Sounds like the sports section of the Wilson Daily Times...

The New Plan: Republican Legislators to Keep Obamacare for Themselves, Give States the Option to Nix it for Everybody Else - Vox.com
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... id=U142DHP

It may be the worst legislation devised in modern times..but somebody likes it. heh

eCat wrote:I think the second wave of Obamacare issues is really starting to hit home now.

Applying those crazy deductibles to everyone has taken thousands of dollars of discretionary spending out of the hands of families that would otherwise spend it at restaurants or boutique brick and mortar stores. While some chains have shown an ability to increase profits, many are struggling. More brick and mortar stores are closing now than in 2008. It isn't just online that's causing it.

I'll continue to beat the drum that Obamacare has been the single worst government sponsored program in my adult life. Those in power supporting it and continue to do so have hurt this country.

The problem with this analysis is that personal and household consumption is up a lot (over 30%) since Obamacare started. Maybe it would have been up even more under a different scenario but its hard to argue that these retailers are struggling because people don't have the money to spend. The retail closings that are happening now are very different than 2008. In 2008, demand disappeared. This time, demand is shifting. Some of these stores are closing but not because the business has failed but because the business is moving to selling through a different channel. The businesses that are failing are mostly those that are Class B mall stores which are exactly the ones that are most at risk from ecommerce. Demand for those products is still there but the customer wants to get them in a different way. These retailers failed to respond to this shift in time and are now dead. Finally, you have someone like Payless that just made bad business decisions along the way and are now paying for it.

Maybe along the margins these higher healthcare costs have caused some problems but I'm highly skeptical that there is much of a connection between the change in retail and Obamacare.

Cletus wrote:

eCat wrote:I think the second wave of Obamacare issues is really starting to hit home now.

Applying those crazy deductibles to everyone has taken thousands of dollars of discretionary spending out of the hands of families that would otherwise spend it at restaurants or boutique brick and mortar stores. While some chains have shown an ability to increase profits, many are struggling. More brick and mortar stores are closing now than in 2008. It isn't just online that's causing it.

I'll continue to beat the drum that Obamacare has been the single worst government sponsored program in my adult life. Those in power supporting it and continue to do so have hurt this country.

The problem with this analysis is that personal and household consumption is up a lot (over 30%) since Obamacare started. Maybe it would have been up even more under a different scenario but its hard to argue that these retailers are struggling because people don't have the money to spend. The retail closings that are happening now are very different than 2008. In 2008, demand disappeared. This time, demand is shifting. Some of these stores are closing but not because the business has failed but because the business is moving to selling through a different channel. The businesses that are failing are mostly those that are Class B mall stores which are exactly the ones that are most at risk from ecommerce. Demand for those products is still there but the customer wants to get them in a different way. These retailers failed to respond to this shift in time and are now dead. Finally, you have someone like Payless that just made bad business decisions along the way and are now paying for it.

Maybe along the margins these higher healthcare costs have caused some problems but I'm highly skeptical that there is much of a connection between the change in retail and Obamacare.

A big driver for this shift in demand is significantly cheaper products online. I agree that shift was coming regardless, but when you have X amount of income and you now have to account for a significant new cost, its going to be cut in whatever can be cut.

entertainment, restaurants, retail, cable TV......

also, wouldn't deductibles paid to medical costs be considered disposable income since it isn't taking out of paychecks? From what I've read disposable income is considered income remaining after taxes and all required deductions, so not only does it not take deductibles into account, it also doesn't consider insurance premiums.

"These retailers failed to respond to this shift in time and are now dead."

Good to see the Dick Cheney of the internet is as remorseless as ever regarding business foibles...

"Finally, you have someone like Payless that just made bad business decisions along the way and are now paying for it."

So you're saying Payless now has to pay more? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!! I'll show myself out now...

bluetick wrote:The New Plan: Republican Legislators to Keep Obamacare for Themselves, Give States the Option to Nix it for Everybody Else - Vox.com
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... id=U142DHP

It may be the worst legislation devised in modern times..but somebody likes it. heh

If any Republican votes for one set of health care rules for congress, and another for the rest of the country, they will be digging their own political grave. They should be primary'd and their opponent could win on that issue alone. It's precisely that kind of hypocritical insider crookedness that made so many Republicans disgusted with their own party leadership, which resulted in the rise of Trump.

If they're going to vote for that, they might as well vote to bring back the congressional post office.

I watched 4 episodes of a 6-part doc on WWII last night. narrated by Martin Sheen. Made me think how fucking quickly it could fall apart here if Trump keeps fucking around with North Korea and they respond with a nuke. Rather than rally around the flag, I think there would mass civil unrest of people ready to rip Trump's head from his body and in the resulting domestic chaos as well as international melee, I could easily see Russian and Chinese troops hitting our shore. The whole thing would take just days, just like Hitler's invasion of France, Belgium, Norway and whatever other countries the Nazis rolled over.

So yeah, I'm not going to worry about Obamacare anymore.

If we somehow went to war with the entire world at the same time, other than maybe Mexico and Canada who would nevertheless be conquered quickly, it would be years and years of economic stangulation and undergoing mobilization for the entire world to finally put troops on our shore. There is no country in the world that can get past the Navy and put troops into North America with forces that currently exist. Our Navy is more powerful than the Naval forces of the rest of the world combined.

Also if North Korea nuked us, civil unrest is laughable. Donald Trump would have approval ratings skyrocketing and we would gear up for wartime with near total lockstep. What you should be scared of is Trump figuring that out, and in some sense he already has. His approval ratings jumped after both the MOAB incident and the Tomahawk attacks.

That's the kind of mentality that is going to make it happen.

If Trump picks a war with NK and we get nuked, I will personally kill him.

aTm wrote:If we somehow went to war with the entire world at the same time, other than maybe Mexico and Canada who would nevertheless be conquered quickly, it would be years and years of economic stangulation and undergoing mobilization for the entire world to finally put troops on our shore. There is no country in the world that can get past the Navy and put troops into North America with forces that currently exist. Our Navy is more powerful than the Naval forces of the rest of the world combined.

You've obviously never watched "Red Dawn."

The worst thing DPRK or Iran can do to us is do an electromagnetic pulse strike. It only takes a couple of nukes, and it would take out the internet and the entire electrical grid. Instead of civil unrest, you'll have mass starvation. I've got rural land, a well and guns, so I'll be okay, but the rest of you are screwed.

The Norks and Iranians can't do that now because their warheads aren't miniaturized, yet, and their missiles can't shoot that far, yet. But they are both feverishly working on it. And in a few years, they will certainly have that capability, if nothing changes.

They were saying the same shit when Ronald Reagan first became President.

Professor Tiger wrote:
If any Republican votes for one set of health care rules for congress, and another for the rest of the country, they will be digging their own political grave. They should be primary'd and their opponent could win on that issue alone. It's precisely that kind of hypocritical insider crookedness that made so many Republicans disgusted with their own party leadership, which resulted in the rise of Trump.

If they're going to vote for that, they might as well vote to bring back the congressional post office.

Voters, by and large, don't punish their Congressional incumbents...particularly GOP reps. Also, deficit hawks only care about deficits when there is a DEM President, based on this tax proposal.

Oh well. My personal 2017 is looking to be fantastic. I am not optimistic about the majority of Americans. It's a shame I am not solely concerned about my own economic status.

How can NK nuke us? Their missiles can't reach us.

aTm wrote:Also if North Korea nuked us, civil unrest is laughable. Donald Trump would have approval ratings skyrocketing and we would gear up for wartime with near total lockstep. What you should be scared of is Trump figuring that out, and in some sense he already has. His approval ratings jumped after both the MOAB incident and the Tomahawk attacks.

yea, that is the truly scary part. War leader Trump can do whatever he wants.
Hell, think about Bush and the patriot act.

But we have to do something about NK.

Whatever Trump told China scared them enough they told North Korea to quit fucking around - which as far as I know is unprecedented

Think about Trump being ridiculed asking about using nuclear weapons at his first defense briefing as President Elect.

and now think about China believing Trump is crazy enough to nuke North Korea and they have an epic humanity crisis on their border , not to mention their own Chernobyl.

Oh you don't think we'll use nukes? Call up my Defense Secretary. Ask for Mad Dog.

Then I hear Mexico has agreed to renegotiate NAFTA as Trump was about to exit it via an EO. Probably got some leverage for building the wall out of it as well. I have a feeling Mexico is going to end up doing alot of shit they swore they'd never do in October.

Trump is either lucky or we have elected Phil Helmuth as our president.

I'd like to read more about how this 3 tier tax proposal breaks out. I'd happily trade not being able to claim state and local taxes in exchange for a second tier tax bracket.

Bklyn wrote:
Voters, by and large, don't punish their Congressional incumbents...particularly GOP reps. Also, deficit hawks only care about deficits when there is a DEM President...

Sad but true. However, there are some deficit hawks out there like me, who are bipartisan, and are extremely angry at the GOP for their terrible fiscal performance. For that reason, I am wary of this new budget proposal. If it explodes the deficit like many Republican tax cuts have in the past, then I will hate it. If all the benefits go to people who already are wealthy, and working people get an extra $5 per paycheck, then I will hate it even more.