The Goat Pen

dave_rickart wrote:All those posts by DSL explaining why tOSU deserved to go the national title game ahead of Auburn?

Those were cute....

Well things sorta change when ya lose, Mr. Rickart.

Urbz also got beat by a staff that's made up of Tressel refugees. Ironic.

Urb still has a few more years with Tressels boys. When his health issues pop up again, then Id start worrying. That's when he realizes the talent he actually recruited isn't really that good.

Nah, Tressel's guys will be mostly gone after this year. 2014 will really be Urban's first true team

Just in time to hop to Texas...

Exactly. Or have a heart attack. again

gotta hate Aub's offense

gotta love their defense

Auburn has seen an offense of FSU's caliber (TAMU) and a defense (Bama), but not at the same time.

If you subscribe to "advanced football metrics" (FEI and F+), Auburn's defense is ~#17. We scored 51 against Clemson (#14), and 37 against Florida (#15, though we stopped "trying" fairly early). Auburn's offense is ~#14 - we held Clemson (#17) to 14 points (7 in garbage time), and Miami to 14 (#4). FWIW, FSU's offense is #1 and its defense is #3 - keep in mind these rankings are adjusted for strength of schedule (how well team A did versus all other opponents). Certainly Auburn's offense is unique and improving rapidly so it'll be a challenge.

I'm very thankful that we have a full month to prepare. Auburn really only runs a few plays but does them VERY well so it will be a matter of execution on both sides. If our defense plays its assignments and sheds blocks, it will have success and we will cruise comfortably. If not, it will be a dogfight. Our first team defense has not given up a rushing TD all year but sadly that is one stat that will likely end in January.

KeviNole wrote:Auburn has seen an offense of FSU's caliber (TAMU) and a defense (Bama), but not at the same time.

If you subscribe to "advanced football metrics" (FEI and F+), Auburn's defense is ~#17. We scored 51 against Clemson (#14), and 37 against Florida (#15, though we stopped "trying" fairly early). Auburn's offense is ~#14 - we held Clemson (#17) to 14 points (7 in garbage time), and Miami to 14 (#4). FWIW, FSU's offense is #1 and its defense is #3 - keep in mind these rankings are adjusted for strength of schedule (how well team A did versus all other opponents). Certainly Auburn's offense is unique and improving rapidly so it'll be a challenge.

I'm very thankful that we have a full month to prepare. Auburn really only runs a few plays but does them VERY well so it will be a matter of execution on both sides. If our defense plays its assignments and sheds blocks, it will have success and we will cruise comfortably. If not, it will be a dogfight. Our first team defense has not given up a rushing TD all year but sadly that is one stat that will likely end in January.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sta ... at/rushing

We played and beat Manziel, Murray and McCarron. So we have succeeded against great QB's.
But I agree that Winston is better than all three. And anybody who has watched our last three games will not be impressed by our pass defense. The Noles will pass on us.

Auburn is the #1 rushing team in the country. FSU is the #18 run defense in the country. And that #18 number is somewhat inflated: FSU has only faced one decent rush team all season - BC - and got gashed by Andre Williams. Auburn will run on FSU.

Auburn's biggest advantage is they are used to playing much tougher teams in much tighter games. FSU played an easier schedule and blew nearly all of them out. That includes their laughable conference championship opponent.

When FSU runs into a top tier team, it may not bother them a bit. They are extremely talented and might beat us handily. They may be that good. But I don't think they can blow out an Auburn team that just beat the #25, #1, and #5 teams in three weeks. We will make them sweat. They aren't used to that. Their unfamiliarity with adversity may be a real problem.

And that #18 number is somewhat inflated: FSU has only faced one decent rush team all season - BC - and got gashed by Andre Williams. Auburn will run on FSU.

FWIW, we've had two major personnel changes since that game. Mario Edwards Jr was injured and did not play, and the best DE against the rush I've seen all year - truly outstanding at shedding blocks. Before that game, Christian Jones was an OLB but has never lived up to his talent at that position; he has since moved to DE and has shined against the run there as well. FSU fans were very concerned about our run defense after that game but it has improved tremendously. Singularly basing your opinion of FSU's run defense on the BC game is as fallacious as singularly basing your opinion of AU on the LSU game. The only time I can remember being gashed since then was a 50 yard wildcat run by Trey Burton in the UF game...apparently our NT was offsides and he and the MLB gave up on the play waiting for the whistle. Oops.

I agree about us not being tested this year and the potential for tightening sphincters in a close game. We did blow out all our opponents, but three of our foes finished in the USA Today Top 25 and we outscored them 135-35. Don't sleep on Duke - they had three 1st team All ACC defenders, FSU had just one . Their secondary is quite comparable to Auburn's though Auburn unquestionably has a better front 7.

I'm not big on "total offense/total defense" stats because they don't take opponent strength, garbage time, etc. into account. FSU has the #1 defense for explosive drives, AU has the #7 offense - this will be a key for FSU, limiting the big plays. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they rank #93 for explosive drives on defense and FSU has the #1 offense.

On paper, this looks like Bama/ND last year. But Auburn has a much better offensive coaching staff and better talent than ND, and the one-trick portion of the one-trick pony is absolutely humming right now. But the game will be played in 4 weeks, not 1, and longer layoffs have traditionally benefitted the defenses more than the offenses. Auburn needs 2 or 3 turnovers in the first half like Duke got to keep it close IMO.

Well, Nick Marshall doesn't have an imaginary girlfriend either.

We played and beat Manziel, Murray and McCarron. So we have succeeded against great QB's.

Manziel - 28/38 454 4/2
Murray - 33/49 415 2/1
McCarron - 17/29 277 3/0

Your OFFENSE succeeded against two average and one great defense. Your DEFENSE hardly succeeded against the QBs.

Auburn got a couple stops against suckass Matt Joekel though...

And if they knock Winston out of the game, we might be in trouble too. Sean Maguire is pretty good but he's no Jameis Winston.

AU has done very well defensively on third down, especially lately; FSU has the best third down offense I've ever seen. Winston's numbers on third and long are inhuman, though he will take a sack or two more than he probably should. I'll take his feast-or-famine approach though, versus EJ Manual's famine-or-famine. I don't have updated stats, but an article I found from November 14 shows his 3rd and long numbers at 10/11, 208, 2TDs (QB rating of 305.17).

GET READY BONFRIED AND PROFESSER TIGER - GET READY FOR A RIDE ON THE PAIN TRAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HUSZKERZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

clip

no fumble

And if they knock Winston out of the game, we might be in trouble too.

I'm not counting on a Colt McCoy in the BCSCG scenario.

Winston's numbers on third and long are inhuman

I could have similar numbers if I was playing Bethune Cookman, Idaho, et al.

OK. Keep hanging your hat on the schedule thing. You might want to research how much Winston padded his stats against BCC and Idaho.

*cough* Arkansas State *cough* Western Carolina *cough* Florida Atlantic

KeviNole wrote:Auburn needs 2 or 3 turnovers in the first half like Duke got to keep it close IMO.

Orangefreak wrote:

KeviNole wrote:Auburn needs 2 or 3 turnovers in the first half like Duke got to keep it close IMO.

Duke. In the ACCCG. In football.

We are not Duke.

Orangefreak wrote:

KeviNole wrote:Auburn needs 2 or 3 turnovers in the first half like Duke got to keep it close IMO.

I'm sure I'm being overly optimistic but I can't see Auburn stopping us more than 3/4 drives without turnovers and I see us stopping them more than 1/2 times. Our offense really is incredibly balanced and outstanding, and our defense doesn't get enough press even though it ranks in the Top 10 (or better) in just about every category. Our punter was our weak spot (along with kick coverage) early in the season but even he has been much better in the last few games.

But we're only good because our schedule sucks and not SEC! SEC! SEC!