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by Bklyn » Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:04 pm
ESPN INSIDER
It's almost become a formality whether you're a fan of the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns or even Boston Celtics. You pray for your team to drop game after game so you can be the clubhouse leader and receive the most pingpong balls in the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes.
There's just one issue. This won't be the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes.
This isn't 2003, when LeBron James was the ultimate no-brainer to be selected No. 1 in the NBA draft. It's not 2012 either, when there was virtually no chance heading into the college season that anyone other than Anthony Davis would be taken No. 1.
Wiggins might be the clubhouse leader, but the first draftee to shake new NBA commissioner Adam Silver's hand in 2014 could be Kentucky's Julius Randle or even Duke's Jabari Parker. In fact, let me be the first to go out on that proverbial limb and say I'd take Randle, a 6-foot-9, 250-pound man-child, with the No. 1 overall pick.
Go ahead and check all of the mock drafts, whether it's our own Chad Ford or anyone else. The 6-7 Wiggins, a Canadian who will play for Bill Self at Kansas this season, sits atop all of the boards.
Wiggins is exceptionally talented. He's long, athletic and has a body that draws comparisons to Kobe Bryant. There are just a couple of issues that NBA personnel raise: Does he possess the killer instinct to be a star in the NBA, and will he develop a perimeter shot that eventually forces defenders to go over screens?
"He's no lock," one NBA executive said of Wiggins being tabbed with the top pick. "He has all the physical tools, but mental makeup is the biggest question with Wiggins."
"He has a lot of things he must show this year," added another high-ranking NBA guy. "His shot must improve and he has to develop a sense of urgency and a better focus."
I watched Wiggins hand it to Randle in July 2012 in Augusta, Ga. The numbers might not support it, but it was complete and utter domination. Wiggins was locked in and played with intensity. He shut down Randle for the most part despite the fact he was giving away more than 30 pounds. He also went for 28 points and grabbed as many rebounds as Randle (13 each).
But that was nearly 18 months ago. Much has changed. Wiggins has been inconsistent at times, and some NBA folks started to develop concerns about Wiggins while watching him practice leading up to the McDonald's All American Game.
Randle was a wannabe Kevin Durant during his head-to-head matchup with Wiggins, preferring to play on the perimeter instead of posting up with his intimidating frame. No one insisted he do work where he's best-equipped to do so, and that's in the paint. That won't be the case in college, when Kentucky coach John Calipari will force Randle to get in the post and use his power, quickness and athleticism to provide a mismatch for just about any opposing big man.
Randle can be an unstoppable force. He's big, extremely strong and ultra-athletic, and he plays with a high motor. He's got a defined position at power forward, and his game will easily translate to the next level. He's about production and potential.
"He can absolutely be the No. 1 pick," one general manager said.
There was something else missing in summer 2012. It was Parker who sat out the entire recruiting period with an injury. He entered that summer as the No. 1 player in the country, but didn't even have an opportunity to defend his belt. Out of sight, out of mind.
"Don't sleep on Parker," one NBA scout said. "He's not the athlete of Wiggins or Randle, but he's a terrific player. He has a high [basketball] IQ, and isn't afraid of anyone."
The 6-8, 235-pound Parker can score in a multitude of ways. He can shoot the 3, has a picturesque midrange game and also can score in the post. He's a gifted passer, rebounds well for his position and is a deceptive athlete.
"He's more athletic than people think," another NBA executive said. "And no one has really seen him since his junior year of high school. He wasn't right in all the All-Star games."
The last time most of us saw the skilled forward from Chicago was at the McDonald's All American Game when he was far less than 100 percent recovered from the foot injury that kept him out all summer and hindered him through his high school campaign.
"I think both Randle and Parker both have a shot at No. 1," one NBA general manager said. "This isn't just about Wiggins."
Make no mistake, Wiggins still remains the preseason favorite for the No. 1 overall pick despite concerns from NBA folks. He's extremely quick off his feet, is deadly in transition and he can be terrific on the defensive end with his length and athleticism.
However, even Self admits Wiggins has a long way to go. He hasn't been even the best freshman in the preseason. That honor belongs to physical shooting guard Wayne Selden. This isn't posturing, either. Self, more than just about anyone, realizes that Wiggins will spend less than a year in Lawrence.
Last season, no one quite knew who to put at the top of the board. Nearly every expert anticipated it would be Nerlens Noel, Cody Zeller or Shabazz Muhammad. None was taken in the top three overall, and Muhammad tumbled all the way to 14th.
There wasn't a "franchise" player in the 2013 NBA draft, but that's not the case with the next crop. Wiggins, Randle and Parker are all different players yet all possess a similar characteristic: star potential.
NBA folks already are divided with whom they'd take if blessed with the No. 1 pick this time around. The majority polled have said it would be Wiggins, but Randle, Parker -- and even Arizona forward Aaron Gordon -- also have received plenty of consideration.
"You've got to let the season play out," one NBA general manager said. "A lot can change."
Just take a look at 2011. That's when nearly everyone anticipated Harrison Barnes would be taken first overall. Instead, it was Kyrie Irving who got the nod after suiting up for just 11 games in college at Duke. Barnes returned to North Carolina for his sophomore season and was taken at No. 7 in 2012 by Golden State.
The NBA draft is an inexact science. There are few "sure things" -- including the notion that Andrew Wiggins will be selected No. 1 on June 26, 2014.
The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.
