The Goat Pen

Jungle Rat wrote:What about the people arrested this weekend who won't see a judge till Wednesday? Im guessing they lose their vote too just because.

http://m.cincinnati.com/enquirertopnews ... 0108&f=880

Can't read the rest of the article unless you subscribe.

My question is this different anywhere else if you get arrested?

Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-go ... JSNB2_EYxE

November 2, 2012 | 4:58 pm

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

Michael Barone,The Examiner's senior political analyst, can be contacted at mbarone@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears Wednesday and Sunday, and his stories and blog posts appear on washingtonexaminer.com.

Not even Rasmussen can be trusted. Romney wins handily.

To believe Mr. Barone, who does no polling himself, is to believe that every single polling company in America has no clue what the fuck they are doing

I thought you were homesick as in out of the country.

Is john Hackali (sp) really the Wiz?

STFU

10ac wrote:So the storm of the century is coming and the very next day pissed-off people are lining up trying to buy gas. Down here, if people think it might snow, will fill there tanks and stock up on non perishables. Do big-city folk just expect someone to take care of them?

Correct. Southerners also don't pelt repair crews with eggs. And if we run out of food, we just go out and shoot some more.

The Southern way of life is faithfully depicted by the noble Thompson family, who no doubt can trace their heritage back to Antebellum days

They're just a poor family (or were). Their ways are unpolished, unrefined, and they speak in a manner that highlights a lack of education.

Makes me sick to see a faux Ivy Leaguer look down his privileged nose at poor people. It says much worse things about him than than the poor family he lampoons.

(Insert photo of the people from Jersey Shore here)

puterbac wrote:Heh...well CBS now reporting that marathon postponed.

You can thank

Mike and Mike for that. Most of their morning broadcast

puterbac wrote: was on Staten Island (I'm home sick in case you were wondering).

Fixed that for you

Student showed me a Florida ballot yesterday. It is ridiculous. Many pages, small print. It'll could take the average voter 15 minutes to get through. No wonder lines are so long with waits over an hour.

AlabamAlum wrote:They're just a poor family (or were). Their ways are unpolished, unrefined, and they speak in a manner that highlights a lack of education.

Makes me sick to see a faux Ivy Leaguer look down his privileged nose at poor people. It says much worse things about him than than the poor family he lampoons.

Another example of the Southern way of life and southern heritage can be seen in the recent epic Ole Miss documentary seen on ESPN's 30 for 30.

That's what southern history and pride is really all about

Voted early today. About a 30 minute wait

It's simple. The more dependant on gubment you are the more likely you are to sit on your behind and whine for someone to come help you instead of helping yourself.

If you are not used to depending on the gubment then you don't automatically think they should come bail you out the instant something goes wrong.

Not a North/South thing but a dependant person vs a non dependant person thing.

Dr. Strangelove wrote:Voted early today. About a 30 minute wait

Who did you vote for?

Big Orange Junky wrote:It's simple. The more dependant on gubment you are the more likely you are to sit on your behind and whine for someone to come help you instead of helping yourself.

If you are not used to depending on the gubment then you don't automatically think they should come bail you out the instant something goes wrong.

Not a North/South thing but a dependant person vs a non dependant person thing.

The preacher man says it’s the end of time
And the Mississippi River she’s a goin’ dry
The interest is up and the Stock Markets down
And you only get mugged
If you go down town

I live back in the woods, you see
A woman and the kids, and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun rifle and a 4-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain’t too many things these ole boys can’t do
We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Because you can’t starve us out
And you cant makes us run
Cuz we're them old boys raised on shotgun
And we say grace and we say Ma’am
And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn

We came from the West Virginia coalmines
And the Rocky Mountains and the and the western skies
And we can skin a buck; we can run a trout line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name, just hillbilly
My grandpa taught me how to live off the land
And his taught him to be a businessman
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights
And I’d send him some homemade wine

But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife
For 43 dollars my friend lost his life
Id love to spit some beechnut in that dudes eyes
And shoot him with my old 45
Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Cause you can’t starve us out and you can’t make us run
Cuz we're them old boys raised on shotgun
And we say grace and we say Ma’am
And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn

We’re from North California and south Alabam
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

In case you're interested: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... ly-biased/

Good post. For Romney to be ahead in many of these states, the polls would have to be wrong by a historical degree