Puterbac News Network and Political Discussion Thread

[Toemeesleather]

Sending billions to the Solyndras and unions ain't working is it?

[Toemeesleather]

It's been said that since a republican got us in this fucked up economy,


Paaathetic...the housing bust/easy credit, the biggest contributor imho, is as much the dems fault as the repubs.

[BigRedMan]

News flash: They are all to blame. Flush them all out. They do not care about Joe Sixpack no matter how much they tell you.

[bluetick]

Anywho, Mitt keeps talking about oprama being desperate and that may be a case of the pot calling the negro's kettle black.

The best electoral college forecast I can find for Mitt is RCP's. And it says oprama only needs 33 votes out of 110 toss ups remaining.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

4 more yearzzzZZZZzzzzz!!!!!!!!!

[bluetick]

Disclaimer: diehard Romneyites will not want to follow this link

http://gigaom.com/cloud/5-sites-that'll ... -election/

[Professor Tiger]

Anywho, Mitt keeps talking about oprama being desperate and that may be a case of the pot calling the negro's kettle black.

The best electoral college forecast I can find for Mitt is RCP's. And it says oprama only needs 33 votes out of 110 toss ups remaining.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

I said the same thing 11 days ago. Try to keep up.

Just checked the Real Clear Politics electoral college map.

Obama has 247 electoral votes to Romney's 191. 270 EV's are needed to win.

The good news for Romney is Missouri just moved into his column. That's because his lead in the polls there reached 6%.

The bad news for Romney is he is still losing in 7 out of the 8 tossup states. The worse news is he is losing in two of those tossup states (Nevada and New Hampshire) by increasing margins. They are approaching that 6% threshold where they will be in the Obama column. That would give Obama 257 votes. That means Obama would only need THIRTEEN more EV's to win.

There are a lot of ways Obama can win those 13 remaining EV's. He could simply win any one of NC, VA, FL, OH. Or he could win CO and IA. By contrast, Romney must win almost all of these states to win.

Romney had better change that map in a hurry or there are going to be a lot of Republicans jumping off ledges on November 7.

[Toemeesleather]

Biden and Obammers own words....polls....keep the faith.

[Professor Tiger]

I think the Ryan pick will help Romney enough to make the election close instead of the electoral college blowout that was shaping up. Ryan might make Romney competitive in some states where he was really starting to slip: Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa are all back in play.

[Toemeesleather]

Before 2010 midterms....






After 2010 midterms.....





Polls didn't show this either.

[Professor Tiger]

Polls didn't show this either.

Are you kidding me? The blowouts of 2010 were well forecasted by many polls, including this one:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/2010_ ... CwiZUSE87B

Poll: Ahead of 2010 Midterm Elections, Incumbent Support Its Lowest Since 1994

A third of registered voters are inclined to reelect their representatives in Congress, the fewest since the Republican Party rode voter discontent to control of the House and Senate 16 years ago, according to a new ABC News-Washington Post poll.

Nearly six in 10 said they'll instead look for someone new come the fall elections.

The impact on congressional races is uncertain, and the finding may chill incumbents of all stripes. But the dynamic does have a partisan cast: Republicans and swing-voting independents alike are far more likely than Democrats to be looking for change in Congress.

[Jungle Rat]

Biden makes Dan Quayle look like a genius.

Are you really that pathetic? Oh wait.

[Professor Tiger]

Polls didn't show this either:

Ahem:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta ... redictions

The following were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections.

RealClearPolitics.
As of November 2, 2010, RCP projected the Republicans would take 224 seats, the Democrats would take 167, and 44 races were toss-ups.[46]

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (New York Times)
As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.[47]

Patrick Ishmael, Hot Air.com
Ishmael predicted on October 31, 2010, that Republicans would win a net of 63 seats, +/- 3 seats.[48] Rasmussen Reports cited Ishmael's calls in its election preview.[49] The week before, Ishmael predicted a net Republican pickup of 62-65 seats.[50]

Crystal Ball
As of November 1, 2010, Larry Sabato predicted, "If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats".[51]

Charlie Cook
On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."[52] In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[53]

Rasmussen Reports
On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House"."[54]

Rothenberg Political Report.
On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55-65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."[55] In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "…the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."[56]

[Toemeesleather]

NPR polling/prediction....Repubs will get 3 seat majority....actual was slllllliiiightly outside margin of error.

http://www.npr.org/elections2010/scorecard/

[Toemeesleather]

Bill Clinton, one of the smartest men on earth....

Clinton believes Democrats will maintain control of the Senate, but he thinks the House is up in the air.

[Toemeesleather]

If you believe the aggregate of all the other polls -- nationally as well as state and district level -- Republicans will likely gain a narrow majority in the House but fall short in the Senate.

National Vote

The national polls have continued to diverge widely over the weekend, especially in terms of their results on the so-called "generic" question that asks, without providing specific names, whether voters intend to support the Republican or Democratic candidate in their congressional district. The results released over the weekend ranged from the four-point Republican advantage (49% to 45%) on the ABC News/Washington Post poll to the extraordinary 15-point Republican tsunami (55% to 40%) forecast by the venerable Gallup poll.

[Toemeesleather]

Right now, the probabilities produced by our House model show Republicans leading in enough of the marginal seats to bring their total to 213 seats to 194 for the Democrats with 28 seats still on our toss-up category. As of this hour, if we allocate the toss-ups based on the candidate our model considers most probable to win in each district (regardless of the margin), we would project 226 seats for the Republicans and 209 seats for the Democrats -- representing a net gain of 48 seats for the Republicans.


Sllllliiiightly outside margin of error...

[Professor Tiger]

So now Toe is quoting NPR to defend his indefensible point.

Now I've seen everything.

[Toemeesleather]

Bout what I figured....the Tick response. If you want to quote a hand full of polls that support the massive landslide of 2010, have a parade. Just as easy to find as many who missed it by a mile....The current lead/difference in the prez election in any poll you wanna quote says to any intelligent person that we have a toss-up brewing, subject surely to change as we get closer to November.

[Jungle Rat]

Republicans are becoming delusional. I mean more than your everyday delusions.

[sardis]

A bit of a stretch...

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/msnbcs-toure ... -of-obama/