SEC - Conference Discussion

[aTm]

I would be surprised if a school like LSU was willing to take on Art Briles. Tom Herman is probably their best bet but I doubt they can get him. He will be everybody's first choice, and I suspect he ends up at Texas (no idea why some of those clowns are still under the impression that Charlie Strong is turning it around, but hell I had no clue it needed to be turned around to begin with). LSU will be lucky not to end up in coaching purgatory for several years, but its not really surprising, they are one program tgat doesnt have experience with their team being on the coaching carousel and how much of a crapshoot it is. Right now they think you just go out and hire a Saban and they think thst if it goes bad you still get a Les Miles. Not the case. LSU has overachieved vs their history in the past 15 years, and now in the SEC West they have more competition than ever.

I mean Georgia fucked up too, but at least they are doing it while all their competition is kinda struggling too.

[Professor Tiger]

As a fan of a program that is the very definition of a coaching carousel, it truly is a crapshoot. Bama had to kiss a few frogs after Bryant (most notably Head a Coach Mike Price) before they got their prince. Auburn and some other programs are still kissing the frogs.

And I think it's way too early to declare Smart a bust at UGA. He's only coached four games there. He must have learned SOMETHING all those years under the Lord of the Dark Arts. He may be cleaning up some cultural problems in his program - like curing them from taking the occasional Saturday off.

[AlabamAlum]

I think Les' time was drawing near, but I don't think he deserved to be fired in September. They will go after Jimbo, Saban (not kidding), Herman, and I think they'd give Briles a shot when their top choices don't pan out.

[Professor Tiger]

They really might go after Saban? That's funny. That's like Poland trying to get Putin to leave Russia and be their president.

[AlabamAlum]

I guarantee phone calls will be made. They were last year when LSU looked to fire Les and couldn't pull the trigger. And, honestly, Saban loved south Louisiana.

[hedge]

[youtube]nwx773iJ2M4[/youtube]

[Professor Tiger]

The only reason I can imagine Saban going to LSU would be boredom. Winning one championship after another at Bama might be getting repetitive and tiresome to him. He seems to like new challenges.

I do NOT expect him and to leave until he decides to retire. But if he were to leave, I think he would try the NFL one more time. Maybe his new goal would be to lead the Jaguars to a Super Bowl win.

[aTm]

And I think it's way too early to declare Smart a bust at UGA. He's only coached four games there. He must have learned SOMETHING all those years under the Lord of the Dark Arts. He may be cleaning up some cultural problems in his program - like curing them from taking the occasional Saturday off.

The odds that Smart will be a better Georgia coach than Richt are virtually zero. If they had hired someone with an actual track record (Urban at Utah/Bowling Green or Saban at MSU) it would be one thing, but firing Richt to hire a coordinator. Dumb. Its not gonna work out, Kirby Smart being a candidate for some of the best head coaching jobs was actually mystifying to me.

[AlabamAlum]

I hope Kirby fails in a spectacular fashion. His longterm success is up in the air, though. Just too many unknowns.

[Professor Tiger]

His selling points were:
1. He was (on paper at least), the architect of the best defense in America for the past ten years.
2. He was the padawan to the best head coach in America the past ten years.
3. He's an outstanding recruiter.
4. He's an alum.

[AlabamAlum]

1. That's Saban's D. Kirby was along for the ride.
2. Like Derick Dooley and Muschamp.
3. Like Dooley and Muschamp.
4. Dubose and Shula were Bama alums.

[aTm]

All of those sound great, and no doubt played a role in his hiring. The problem with the way schools make decisions though is that downside risks are almost never considered. It is just taken as a given that the next coach must be at least as good as the fired coach which is fallacious. Georgia would have considered Richt's level to be baseline and then added those positives on top of that when the reality is that Smart is unlikely to even reach Richt's level to begin with, esp starting his career under the microscope of that kind of program. It's interesting in Georgia's case because they are following the same playbook that they kind of won the lottery with by giving them Richt (hiring a Bowden protege/coordinator in that case). Normally I would expect the school that fired a coach to look for someone different in almost every way.

[Professor Tiger]

1. I've heard a lot of Bama fans say that. It always sounded like sour grapes. But that is becoming Bulldog fans' worst nightmare.
2. and 3. You forgot to mention just like Dooley and Muschamp.
3. That's the only reason Dubose and Shula got the job for awhile. A non-alum probably would not have gotten that job.

Yes, I still miss Coach Shula.

[AlabamAlum]

I think Georgia looked at SECCG totals and used it as a yardstick. They did not like being tied for 5th in that metric, at all. That and 35 years since a national championship made them roll the dice.

I agree, though. I think a proven commodity is the correct move for a major school with deep pockets.

[AlabamAlum]

1. I've heard a lot of Bama fans say that. It always sounded like sour grapes. But that is becoming Bulldog fans' worst nightmare.
2. and 3. You forgot to mention just like Dooley and Muschamp.
3. That's the only reason Dubose and Shula got the job for awhile. A non-alum probably would not have gotten that job.

Yes, I still miss Coach Shula.

Sour grapes? It's essentially the same scheme he ran at LSU - well before Kirby.

[Professor Tiger]

All of those sound great, and no doubt played a role in his hiring. The problem with the way schools make decisions though is that downside risks are almost never considered. It is just taken as a given that the next coach must be at least as good as the fired coach which is fallacious. Georgia would have considered Richt's level to be baseline and then added those positives on top of that when the reality is that Smart is unlikely to even reach Richt's level to begin with, esp starting his career under the microscope of that kind of program. It's interesting in Georgia's case because they are following the same playbook that they kind of won the lottery with by giving them Richt (hiring a Bowden protege/coordinator in that case). Normally I would expect the school that fired a coach to look for someone different in almost every way.

I don't think anybody is disputing that a coaching candidate with a winning track record as a head coach at a P5 program is more attractive than a successful coordinator without HC experience. But there are few of the former available at any given time.

Look at LSU right now. They would love a winning head coach from a P5 conference. But look at their options. Saban? Yeah right. Herman? They'll have to compete with Texas and Notre Dame and others for his services. No easy task. Jimbo? What could LSU offer him that he doesn't already have? Broils and Petrino might be available if you don't mind the heavy baggage.

LSU will probably wind up with a coordinator for lack of better alternative. That is usually the case.

[aTm]

I don't think anybody is disputing that a coaching candidate with a winning track record as a head coach at a P5 program is more attractive than a successful coordinator without HC experience. But there are few of the former available at any given time.

I didn't say anything about power 5. Head coach at a non-power 5 school and possibly even the right FCS head coach would be preferable to a coordinator.

Les Miles and Nick Saban both actually WERE power 5 head coaches. LSU is likely to hire someone who is a head coach, I think, which at least puts them on a leg up on replacing Miles over going out and getting a coordinator. Herman would be great for them, and I bet they think he is a sure thing fall back plan. I can see them getting stuck holding the bag though.

[AlabamAlum]

LSU is a good job. You're the only major school in a state with good HS talent and when the kids come for official visits, one of the players takes them to the French Quarter in NOLA and shows them the titties and complete disregard for following the age restriction on alcohol sales.

[Jungle Rat]

Unless Herman totally collapses at UH, he's not going anywhere. Neither is Petrio. To let Strong go is dumb. Les takes a year off and takes over Michigan State before 2018

[Professor Tiger]

LSU's current situation is not an academic exercise for Auburn fans. Malzahn is about one year behind Miles on the exit lane.

I think Freeze might be a good target for somebody. What he did with Ole Miss has been amazing (even if he cut a few corners to do it). He's a successful head coach in the SEC, but for a program that doesn't have particularly deep pockets. He might go elsewhere for a whopping pay raise that Ole Miss can't match.

And why has nobody has gone after Paul Johnson at GA Tech? AA has often said he's the best coach in college football.