Florida State Seminoles

[Owlman]

So have the Republicans responds to the Khans. Don't do it yourself. It was stupid to respond to the husband and even more stupid to attack the wife instead of what the husband said.

He has to do one thing, convince people that he's commander in chief material against a flawed candidate. He's failing and keeps failing. You may be tired of it, but Trump still has to put together a majority to win. I thought Sarah Palin was clueless on the issues, but Trump is willfully ignorant of the issues. He alienates purple heart recipients but I think they are missing the point. They think he did it on purpose. I don't think he knows what a purple heart is for.

[aTm]

Saw this linked this morning, hadn't seen it before. Yet another solid point by St. Michael Crichton, may he rest in peace.

http://larvatus.com/michael-crichton-why-speculate/

Media carries with it a credibility that is totally undeserved. You have all experienced this, in what I call the Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. (I refer to it by this name because I once discussed it with Murray Gell-Mann, and by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have.)

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward, reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

That is the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. I'd point out it does not operate in other arenas of life. In ordinary life, if somebody consistently exaggerates or lies to you, you soon discount everything they say. In court, there is the legal doctrine of falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus, which means untruthful in one part, untruthful in all. But when it comes to the media, we believe against evidence that it is probably worth our time to read other parts of the paper. When, in fact, it almost certainly isn't. The only possible explanation for our behavior is amnesia.

...

All right, you may say, you'll accept that the future can't be known, in the way I am talking. But what about more immediate matters, such as the effects of pending legislation? Surely it is important to talk about what will happen if certain legislation passes. Well, no, it isn't. Nobody knows what is going to happen when the legislation passes. I give you two examples, one from the left and one from the right.

The first is the Clinton welfare reform, harshly criticized by his own left wing for caving in to the Republican agenda. The left's predictions were for vast human suffering, shivering cold, child abuse, terrible outcomes. What happened? None of these things. Child abuse declined. In fact, as government reforms go, its been a success; but Mother Jones still predicts dire effects just ahead.

This failure to predict the effects of a program was mirrored by the hysterical cries from the Republican right over raising the minimum wage. Chaos and dark days would surely follow as businesses closed their doors and the country was plunged into needless recession. But what was the actual effect? Basically, nothing. Who discusses it now? Nobody. What will happen if there is an attempt to raise the minimum wage again? The same dire predictions all over again. Have we learned anything? No.

But my point is, for pending legislation as with everything else, nobody knows the future.

...

If speculation is worthless, why is there so much of it? Is it because people want it? I don't think so. I myself speculate that media has turned to speculation for media's own reasons. So now let's consider the advantages of speculation from a media standpoint.

It's incredibly cheap. Talk is cheap. And speculation shows are the cheapest thing you can put on television, They're almost as cheap as running a test pattern. Speculation requires no research, no big staff. Minimal set. Just get the talking host, book the talking guestsof which there is no shortageand you're done! Instant show. No reporters in different cities around the world, no film crews on location. No deadlines, no footage to edit, no editorsnothing! Just talk. Cheap.
You can't lose. Even though the speculation is correct only by chance, which means you are wrong at least 50% of the time, nobody remembers and therefore nobody cares. You are never accountable. The audience does not remember yesterday, let alone last week, or last month. Media exists in the eternal now, this minute, this crisis, this talking head, this column, this speculation.

[eCat]

So have the Republicans responds to the Khans. Don't do it yourself. It was stupid to respond to the husband and even more stupid to attack the wife instead of what the husband said.

He has to do one thing, convince people that he's commander in chief material against a flawed candidate. He's failing and keeps failing. You may be tired of it, but Trump still has to put together a majority to win. I thought Sarah Palin was clueless on the issues, but Trump is willfully ignorant of the issues. He alienates purple heart recipients but I think they are missing the point. They think he did it on purpose. I don't think he knows what a purple heart is for.

Palin was clueless. She was a joke candidate, but I also thought Obama was a joke candidate. Obama was about as equally qualified as Palin in terms of experience.

I don't know what Trump is doing and like many others, I"m worn down with the idea of supporting him

but I'm not against Hillary like some GOP rhetoric is against her. She's a truly evil person, she a political predator and doesn't care what she says or has to do to reach the goal of president. There is no shortage of stories from secret service about what a bitch she is to people she thinks is beneath her. And we've seen how much work has been put into getting her the presidency - similar to the fight that Trump had with delegates and voterless primaries. The DNC had to clean house just this week.

Say what you will about Trump - he spoke his mind about topics that other Republicans either refused to touch on or wouldn't consider (whether they were actually for them or not), he went against conventional wisdom about how to run a campaign and did it his way - again, mostly because of the outrage the country had with the GOP and Obama -but at least Trump hasn't caved, in many respects he's doubled down on his positions. He is absolutely willfully ignorant on topics and approaches. Is there a limit to what people will tolerate in wanting the outsider to win and having the protest candidate? I guess we'll see. He could put babies on pikes and I'm going to vote for him over Hillary.

Priebus, Ryan, McCain - along with a truckload of other republicans have dumped on Trump every chance they get and now they are pissing themselves because he won't endorse. To the extent that they're talking about an intervention to Trump to remind him his fight isn't against the GOP its against Hillary.

but that isn't what his voters want. They don't just want him to beat Hillary, they want him to deconstruct the GOP so that there is never a Paul Ryan or John McCain to cater to what they think its important versus what their voting base wants. Besides, did they really think Trump was just going to slap all these two faced sumbitches on the back and let bygones be bygones now that they has the nomination.

Trump will be having state of the unions if he wins to call them out to the nation when they go against him.

[hedge]

"So now let's consider the advantages of speculation from a media standpoint.

It's incredibly cheap. Talk is cheap. And speculation shows are the cheapest thing you can put on television, They're almost as cheap as running a test pattern. "

Wow, nothing gets by this guy. Rupert Murdoch figured that scheme out decades ago...

[aTm]

Well, that talk was more than a decade ago...and Michael Crichton's been dead for 8 years, I think, now. If only it had been you instead.

[Owlman]

I have to admit, I don't think Trump is evil. (I don't think Hillary is evil either. Hitler was evil. Stalin was evil). Trump isn't evil. He's just dangerously narcissistic. Hillary says that Trump is so weak he can be baited by a tweet and then on his own, not forced by anybody, Trump proves it in his responses. Don't trust intentional ignorance. That was Palin and that's Trump.

I expect Trump to win Ohio, but Hillary will win Florida, Virginia, Colorado and now Pennsylvania. Why would you put down the capital city of the state of Pennsylvania.

[eCat]

I have to admit, I don't think Trump is evil. (I don't think Hillary is evil either. Hitler was evil. Stalin was evil). Trump isn't evil. He's just dangerously narcissistic. Hillary says that Trump is so weak he can be baited by a tweet and then on his own, not forced by anybody, Trump proves it in his responses. Don't trust intentional ignorance. That was Palin and that's Trump.

I expect Trump to win Ohio, but Hillary will win Florida, Virginia, Colorado and now Pennsylvania. Why would you put down the capital city of the state of Pennsylvania.

I don't think Hillary is going to win Pennsylvania - not unless Philly carries the entire state.

[Owlman]

Trump just insulted the entire city of Harrisburg, describing it as a war zone. He insulted the suburban women telling them that if they sexually harassed, go into another field or get another job. That's a lot of the determining vote in Pennsylvania. Right now, Hillary leads with 46% of the vote to 40%. I don't think Trump will win Penn.

Right now, looking at strong Democ plus likely Democ compared to Trump strong Repub plus likely Repub, the total is 255 to 162. (you need 270).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[eCat]

on a Hitler/Stalin scale of evil, clearly she is not

but in a sell ICBM technology to the Chinese level she is.

[aTm]

The kind of evil that would take millions in charitable donations to her foundation from OPEC countries and then oppose hydraulic fracturing and pipelines in the USA?

[Jungle Rat]

Whatever it takes

[Saint]

I'm actually finding Trump more likeable the more groups that he insults. Clearly he has no clue how to be president and he would probably be a disaster from the standpoint of knowing how to get anything done or even what to do. But his utter rashness on nearly anything is appealing to me.

[bluetick]

I think its funny that Hillary /DNC is using the angle of him unfit but the flip side of it is admitting that Hillary is a professional politician

which is poison in today's environment

It's poison in today's rwnj environment. ftfy

yea, that's why Bernie Sanders has so few followers right?

Good lord, Bernie has 40 years in the U.S. Senate. You seriously don't think he's a professional pol? Day-um.

Trump2016, I guess.

[Cletus]

my initial response was no fucking way am I playing a game where I could be Hitler

it's a good game. better in person but I think the online version with this group that has known each other for so long could be fun.

[sardis]

I am still voting Trump because I would rather everything burn to the ground than vote for a Clinton.

[Cletus]

That's the kind of irresponsible stupidity that we've come to expect from you.

[hedge]

"it's a good game. better in person but I think the online version with this group that has known each other for so long could be fun."

Does everybody have to be playing at the same time or can you come and go (kinda like posting in here)?

[hedge]

"I don't think Hillary is going to win Pennsylvania - not unless Philly carries the entire state."

I think Hillary is going to win NC. And if she does, she'll win the election in a landslide...

[Cletus]

"it's a good game. better in person but I think the online version with this group that has known each other for so long could be fun."

Does everybody have to be playing at the same time or can you come and go (kinda like posting in here)?

It happens in real time. It rewards lying and, to a degree, sass.

[hedge]

Sounds promising...