Ostensibly Hoops

[eCat]

Oh, I was thinking it was going to be a show about getting 3 fingers rammed up some dude's ass...

wrong thead

[Bklyn]

Oh, I was thinking it was going to be a show about getting 3 fingers rammed up some dude's ass...

Well, who knows...

[aTm]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wha ... hern-iowa/

Texas A&M Pulled Off A 1-in-3,000 Comeback
By NEIL PAINE

Fresh off a miraculous buzzer-beating win over Texas on Friday, the Northern Iowa men's basketball team had pretty much capped off another upset over a Lone Star State school Sunday night when it led Texas A&M by 12 points with 35 seconds to play in the teams' second-round NCAA matchup.

Sure, the Aggies figured to play out the string hard, gambling for steals and committing fouls, but the game was essentially over teams simply don't come back from deficits so large with so little time remaining. In fact, you could have spotted the Panthers half that lead, and victory still would have been practically assured.
That's why our win probability chart considered the Panthers' victory about as certain as it gets, well above 99.9 percent likely:

In a certain sense, if each possession is a coin flip to score or not, the Aggies basically flipped heads 10 times in 11 tries the likelihood of which is about 1 in 171.1 But even that vastly understates Texas A&M's comeback probability, because some of its field goals needed to be 3-pointers, and the pressure exerted by the clock cannot be understated. Even as the Aggies had the ball, trailing by just 2 points with five seconds to play, Northern Iowa was still very likely to win because they only had to avoid giving up the tying bucket.

In our database of 15,139 men's college basketball games since the 2012-13 season,2 nine games (including Sunday's) saw a team come back to win from down 10 or more points with less than two minutes remaining. None of the other eight comebacks was executed in fewer than 62 seconds nearly twice as much time as Texas A&M had to work with. And in terms of deficits overcome with exactly 35 seconds remaining, 12 points is by far the largest in our database; the previous high had been 8 points, when Canisius fought back against Louisiana-Monroe in December. In more than 570 tries apiece, no team had come back from down 9, 10, 11 or 12 points in 35 seconds over the past four years of Division I men's basketball.

It was enough to make other historic college basketball comebacks, such as Illinois over Arizona and Duke over Maryland, look downright pedestrian by comparison.

In cases like this, it's difficult to estimate the exact probability of a comeback, just because the model is verging on the realm of hypothetical possibilities instead of observed realities. (It also can't account for specific, meaningful factors such as the Panthers' top inbounder, Matt Bohannon, leaving the game with an injury right before his team's meltdown began.) But based on all of the things our model does take into account, we assigned Texas A&M a 1-in-3,333 chance of winning when its deficit was 12 with 35 seconds left.

In other words, you could play out Sunday night's end-game scenario thousands more times and never once see the Aggies move on to the Sweet 16.

[Jungle Rat]

ZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz.......

[eCat]

give him his moment

[goldenbear]

Northern Iowa choked and gave the game away but that and 1 call with 12 seconds left was brutal, there is no place in the game for that call what so ever.

[hedge]

give him his moment

That's should've been my moment, damn it!

[hedge]

For BRM. Dan Dakitch interviewing Tom Crean about the UK game and the upcoming UNC game. After the interview, Dakitch savages UK and its fans for about 90 seconds. Starts at the 14:10 mark...

http://www.insidethehall.com/2016/03/21 ... -carolina/

[BigRedMan]

Yeah he warms my heart and doesn't pull any punches with anyone to be honest including listeners of his own show.

[crotch]

Predictions of the next basketball coaches at the top Universities... not sure Kentucky fans would agree with this.

http://collegespun.com/big-ten/ohio-sta ... p-programs

[Saint]

Danny Manning won't ever win at Wake. He'll quit in frustration within 2 years.

[eCat]

I can't see Jay Wright.

[hedge]

The Belle's palsy afflicting you again?

[eCat]

I can only see half of Jay Wright

[eCat]

there seems to be optimism at this point that Labassierre is a top 15 draft pick

Don't want to hate on the kid but I don't see him contributing more next year than he did this year - and we need the scholarship.

[Cletus]

there seems to be optimism at this point that Labassierre is a top 15 draft pick

Don't want to hate on the kid but I don't see him contributing more next year than he did this year - and we need the scholarship.

What if wants to stay and get a degree? Does the school have any obligation to him or is his role at Kentucky as only a basketball player?

[hedge]

BWHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA!!! Whew, that's a good one, Cletus. (mumbling to myself, "UK having an obligation to its hoops busts, whew")...

[eCat]

there seems to be optimism at this point that Labassierre is a top 15 draft pick

Don't want to hate on the kid but I don't see him contributing more next year than he did this year - and we need the scholarship.

What if wants to stay and get a degree? Does the school have any obligation to him or is his role at Kentucky as only a basketball player?

do you think he came to UK because he wanted to stay and get a degree?

but you don't have to look any further than Alex Poythress.

[BigRedMan]

Yeah when he is gone their team GPA is going to go in the shitter.

[Saint]

How many years has Cal been running the OAD system at UK? 5 or 6? At what point does the NCAA graduation requirement cut into scholarships? Or are these OADs coming back and getting their degrees in the summer?