College graduates are more likely than ever to marry college graduates, statistics show. High school dropouts are more likely to marry high school dropouts.
Think of marriage like any other contract or investment. It's most likely to happen when gains are big. So we should expect marriages among low-income Americans to decline if women perceive declining gains from hitching themselves to the men around them. That's precisely what we have seen.
Low-skill men have had a rough two generations. The evaporation of manufacturing work has gutted their main source of employment, while globalization has held down their wages. Marriage has declined the most among men whose wages have declined the most - see graph comparing change in earnings (the RED LINE) and change in likelihood to be married (the BLUE BARS).
It is hardly easy to do anything with earnings near the poverty level. But it is relatively easier to raise a child and keep up a home with modern household innovations. The connection between Lunchables, detergent and marriage rates is not often made, but perhaps it should be. The development of time-saving technologies -- cheap prepared foods, cheap clothes, machines to wash, dry, and vacuum -- has not only encouraged more women to seek work, but also made it relatively easier for single parents to raise a child. Put starkly, technology makes it cheaper and easier than ever to be single. It makes marrying a financially unstable man even more risky.
